賓主俱成"假仙" "The Stranger in the Room." 。美國的更大目標？ Trump Jettisons Ukraine on His Way to a Larger Goal。烏克蘭領導國家的合適人選的爭論日益激烈.......紐約時報如何處理TRUMP 總統的新聞等，大分類：令人頭暈目眩的一周(經濟學人主編) The New Yorker 。Trump blocked from imposing sweeping federal funding freeze陶傑提難問題。 Europeans Are Left Wondering Where U.S. Stands on Ukraine and Russia； The Economist兩封面 主編Zanny Minton Beddoes說此期要點：【烏俄談判與台海效應：一名情報主管Alex Younger爵士的觀點】黃哲斌

國立清華大學National Tsing Hua University

張錯

許杏晨




石牧民




English Literature info




Chicago Architecture Center




Francis Bacon (artist)




CNA


Jeff Jarvis

Todd Alcott



What Vance did yesterday, in Hollywood terms, is called "The Stranger in the Room." Screenwriters, especially, are well aware of the role of The Stranger in the Room. The Stranger in the Room is anyone in a meeting who is just there "as a friend," someone who has no creative authority on, and no stake in, the project being discussed, anyone in the room who is a last-minute addition. Sometimes it's a 20-something intern, sometimes it's an executive from a sister office, sometimes it's someone from marketing, sometimes it's an older, more experienced producer who's lending a hand for a day.
Example: I was once pitching a legacy reboot project to a legendary producer, a real lion of the industry. His 22-year-old daughter was also in the room. She interrupted my pitch to say "Right, but we don't want, like, any conflict in the movie."
The purpose of The Stranger in the Room is to destroy the project. The Stranger in the Room is the one who, after the writer and producer and director have all agreed on the direction of the story, says "How will that play in China?" or "This sounds a lot like [movie X]" or "But isn't this movie really about love?"
The Stranger in the Room is always, always there at the behest of the most powerful person in the room. Whether the Stranger understands it or not, they are acting on the behalf of the studio, and it is the studio's natural desire to say "no," because no one has ever gotten fired for saying "no," and Hollywood executives, more than anything else, spend their entire careers terrified they're going to lose their jobs for saying "yes."
But they don't want to be disliked by creatives, so instead of saying "no," they bring in a friend, either a protege or an ally from another department, or just grab someone from the hallway, a producer on another project, and ask them to sit in on the meeting. They don't know what they're looking for, they hear a hundred pitches a day, they don't know what, if anything, will please their bosses, so they bring in an ally to get another viewpoint, any viewpoint, on the project, so that they can then say "no" without looking like an asshole. Instead, they can say "Yes, that's a good point, we have to keep in mind the China market," or "Yeah, this DOES sound a lot like [movie X] now that I hear it out loud," or "Yeah, what about love? We're forgetting all about love, why isn't your action movie pitch really about love?"
And then, suddenly, the balance in the room shifts. Suddenly, a collaboration, a negotiation as it were, becomes an argument. Where, just moments earlier, everyone was agreeing on how awesome the project sounded, now, suddenly, the creatives are on one side and the suits are on the other, and the meeting becomes a power struggle, one the creatives can only lose, because the suits have the money and the creatives only have the art.
So, in Hollywood terms, Zelenskyy was the writer/director/producer, Trump was studio executive terrified of losing his job, and Vance was the disinterested ally brought in to bring up some random point that would turn the negotiation into an argument that the writer/director/producer cannot possibly win. I'll leave it up to you to figure out who studio head is.

Behind the Collision: Trump Jettisons Ukraine on His Way to a Larger Goal

 經濟學人· 週五的災難讓基輔政壇的大部分人都陷入了震驚的沉默。現在，關於弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基是否仍然是領導國家的合適人選的爭論日益激烈 https://econ.trib.al/UYoZfjg 照片：法新社

The Economist

The shock of Friday’s disaster has left much of political Kyiv in stunned silence. There is now a growing debate about whether Volodymyr Zelensky is still the right person to lead the country https://econ.trib.al/UYoZfjg
Photo: AFP



The New Yorker

“It was one thing to anticipate this prolonged political moment; it has been, these past weeks, quite another to live it,” David Remnick writes. “Each day is its own fresh hell, bringing ever more outrageous news from an autocrat who revels in his contempt for the government he leads, for the foreign allies who deserve our support, and for the Constitution he is sworn to uphold.”

In record time, Donald Trump has brought shame and disorder to the country. He has set out to fire countless civil servants, punish his adversaries, and threaten the press. He has cast aside essential climate actions, humiliated undocumented immigrants and trans men and women, coddled dictators, and unnerved allies. He has empowered extremists distinguished principally by their conspiracy thinking, sycophancy, and incompetence.

In the Oval Office on Friday, Trump nakedly sided with Russian aggression, berating the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, for failing to show him sufficient gratitude and respect and for “gambling with World War Three.” “Zelensky is a hero of historic scale, brave beyond measure; Trump’s behavior was disgraceful,” Remnick writes. “He and his Vice-President, J. D. Vance, deliberately tried to intimidate Zelensky with all the finesse of a couple of small-time hoods. The incident was both shocking and inevitable, all in line with the over-all temper of Trump’s Presidency—the threats, the firings, the multiple DOGE fiascoes, the proposal to cleanse the Gaza Strip of two million Palestinians.”

“Is this really what Trump’s supporters voted for? How does the decimation of American values, institutions, and commitments bring down the price of eggs?” Read our editor’s reflections on the start of Donald Trump’s shameful second term: https://www.newyorker.com/....../03/10/trumps-disgrace......

Reuters 

A US judge extended an order blocking President Donald Trump's administration from instituting a sweeping freeze on trillions of dollars in federal spending by pausing grants, loans and other financial support.

reuters.com

Trump blocked from imposing sweeping federal funding freeze

"令人頭暈目眩的一周" ("經濟學人"主編說的)

紐約時報如何處理TRUMP 總統的新聞等，大分類：

Trump Administration

liveUpdates 4m ago

Tracking Major Moves

Lawsuits Tracker

In Trump’s Cross Hairs

Federal Worker Cuts

Confirmations Tracker

liveUpdates (4分鐘前更新)

追蹤重大舉措

訴訟追蹤

川普的眼中釘

聯邦工作人員削減

官員提名˙認可追蹤

With No Buy-in From Egypt or Jordan, Trump Appears to Back Away From His Gaza Plan

Earlier this month, the president said he favored taking control of Gaza and displacing the Palestinian population of the devastated seaside enclave. But Egypt and Jordan flatly rejected cooperating.

Europeans Are Left Wondering Where U.S. Stands on Ukraine and Russia

In public, Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled a rapprochement with Moscow. In private, he tried to reassure European leaders that U.S. policy wasn’t changing.

陶傑 

面對川普，歐美左派政客和輿論除了在道德上謾罵，全無反抗之力。他們至今無法面對三大問題：

1，為何歐洲去年由俄羅斯入口天然氣一百七十億立方米天然氣，資助俄羅斯繼續作戰，這是什麼樣制裁、何種的道德；

2，如果一個難題三年也無法解決，為何不能換一個法子？

3，川普指控左翼在種種巨大的援助裏貪污、開小錢櫃，包括對烏克蘭的龐大資助，是真是假？是不是如四年前所謂「新冠狀病毒來自實驗室」一樣的謠言陰謀論？

三大問題，正本清源，先將原則和底線擺正，辟謠答覆之後再來罵川普。因為駡川普不需要成本，解答以上問題，卻需要常識與勇氣。

唯如中學生在試場裏考試，任何考試時間，若規定兩小時，時間到了，考生還在皺眉頭咬筆頭，監考官都會說：時間到了，請你交卷。

歐洲和英國再不情願，也要面對現實。川普是美國民主選出來的合法總統，任期是四年。現在他拒絕再付鈔，他要先查帳。如果歐洲不喜歡，你這四年自己取代美國，傾全力軍事援助烏克蘭，包括派出坦克、轟炸機、陸軍，捱過四年。等下一屆，讓主張大愛的哈里斯回歸白宮。

現實就是如此，非常簡單的事，有什麼好搥胸頓足？跟監考官哭鬧搶試卷也不是辦法。交卷時間到了，不及格就是不及格。

川普為何突然對烏克蘭翻臉？在邏輯上只有兩個可能：第一，他狂躁惡化為精神病。第二，他沒有精神病，而是在查帳的時候發現美國對烏克蘭的援助金錢去向出了大問題，覺得要整肅。

若是第一，就是重大的國家危機。但美國有完善的罷免機制，內閣官員會相繼辭職，兩黨在國會也會譁變彈劾機制。

若是第二，就比較尷尬。因為澤連斯基三年以來在西方主流傳媒塑造下是繼昂山素姬後另一位抗爭英雄。

若澤倫斯基是岳飛，川普是宋高宗，馬斯克是秦檜，美國共和黨是主和派，小澤當即可高唱一首滿江紅，在德英法三國領袖陪同下召開記者會嚴厲駁斥。然而澤倫斯基最新證實：美烏正在擬定草案，希望能達成公平的結果，協議要平等互惠，且美方需提供包含強大飛彈系統在內的安全保證。

消息透露，美烏稀土協議達成在即。小澤也很現實。真相如何，拜登和歐洲過去三年，是真心支持烏克蘭抗敵，還是利用烏克蘭消耗俄羅斯，故援助不湯不水，澤連斯基心裏比你和我都明白。

川普美國將會經濟殖民烏克蘭？一旦實施，是全球的喜訊。英國一度經濟殖民馬來亞，造就過張弼士、余東旋、郭鶴年等華人富商，開發的錫礦，變成罐頭；殖民開採的橡膠，今日左膠變性運動員個個穿的Adidas名貴運動鞋，全部拜英帝國主義經濟殖民遠東所賜。

美國不止可以經濟殖民烏克蘭，會帶來財富；經濟殖民加沙，百分之百是好事。不要看西方的左派嘴巴在罵，若加沙十年後在川普的戰略之下，變成另一個度假勝地，西方左翼會在這裏舉辦論壇，照樣享受陽光海灘。

英國的斯坦默軟化，很狡猾地，聲稱在烏克蘭和平後可以派和平部隊。但烏克蘭的和平，只會是根據川普設計之下的和平，亦即英國在川普面前已經認輸。

難怪英國叫德國也排和平部隊，即遭到德國總理蕭爾茲回駡。英法都開始向川普靠攏。是人是鬼，是道德家還是一群同樣現實的小政客。

川普是魔鬼？但那面照妖鏡裏看得見的妖精，哈哈，比魔鬼更引人入勝。

陶傑披藏：https://patreon.com/tokitchannel

Trump Really Can’t Get Enough of Himself

Feb. 22, 2025

Credit...Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Patrick Healy

Deputy Opinion Editor

You’re reading the Opinion Today newsletter.  Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world. 

Like last Saturday, Times Opinion is using today’s newsletter to stay on top of President Trump’s moves, putting a spotlight on where Americans can’t afford to turn away from.

Where America Stands: Trump smeared the founding fathers in Week 5 by declaring himself “king” — of the United States? The world? His narcissism knows no bounds — as he grasped for godlike power to pronounce congestion pricing “dead” in Manhattan. Calling himself “king” denigrates every American who has fought and died for democracy, but Trump sees those heroes as “losers” anyway. Of course, he doesn’t have a king’s power, but his efforts to remake America pay no heed to the rule of law.

What Mattered Most This Week: Ukraine. Trump sent mixed messages, which he sees as core to his deal making, but make no mistake about his pro-Putin posture. Trump accused Ukraine of launching the war and called its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a dictator — both lies — while squeezing Kyiv for an earth minerals deal and a cease-fire in the war with Russia. Now, it’s worth keeping in mind, Trump is not alone in disliking Zelensky; the Biden White House deeply mistrusted him too. But Trump approaches Ukraine with a dangerous moral relativism: He doesn’t care about good and evil, as he showed Friday when he said he was “tired” of hearing about Putin’s war crimes. Trump cares about strength and leverage. “He has no cards,” he said of Zelensky. Trump sees the world as his casino and all that matters is your cards.

• Worth reading: My colleagues Bret Stephens and M. Gessen went deep on Ukraine, Putin, Trump and Europe in this round table, and the Times Opinion editorial board weighed in today on Ukraine. Susan Glasser of The New Yorker has a good piece on Trump’s “Putinization of America,” and The Wall Street Journal had strong reporting about the implications for NATO.

The Most Important Long Game in Washington: Elon Musk. He and his youthful goon squad are running amok across federal agencies, with more layoffs hitting disaster relief programs, the Interior Department and the I.R.S. Americans want competence from their government, not chaos; Musk may enjoy breaking things, but the laws of political gravity suggest Republicans will pay the price.

• Worth reading: A Politico story about Republican lawmakers’ panic over the DOGE firing spree even as they cheer it in public; a Washington Post story along similar lines but about executive officials; and this Journal story about how X is effectively cashing in on Musk’s position. My colleague Zeynep Tufekci had a great column Friday on the digital clues to what Musk is up to.

The Most Important Development Below the Radar: The Trump administration’s intervention on behalf of Andrew Tate. Trump’s moral relativism goes into overdrive when it comes to defending male predators.

Watching Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: The health and human services secretary said “nothing” is off limits in his new plans to scrutinize childhood vaccine schedules, psychiatric medications and other public health issues. Every senator who confirmed Kennedy while harboring private doubts about him are now officially on the hook for the future of children’s health.

川普真的對自己欲罷不能

2025 年 2 月 22 日

川普總統在拉什莫爾山前擺姿勢。

圖片來源：Saul Loeb／法新社 — Getty Images

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派崔克·希利

派崔克·希利

副觀點編輯

您正在閱讀《今日觀點》新聞通訊。 獲得專家對新聞的分析以及影響世界的偉大思想的指南。將其發送到您的收件匣。

就像上週六一樣，《時代觀點》利用今天的新聞通訊來關注川普總統的動向，將焦點放在美國人無法忽視的地方。

美國的立場：川普在第五週宣稱自己是美國“國王”，以此誹謗開國元勳？世界？他的自戀無止境——他利用神一般的權力宣布曼哈頓的擁堵收費「死亡」。自稱「國王」貶低了每一位為民主而戰鬥和犧牲的美國人，但川普無論如何都把這些英雄視為「失敗者」。當然，他沒有國王的權力，但他重塑美國的努力卻無視法治。

本週最重要的事：烏克蘭。川普發出了混合訊息，他認為這是達成協議的核心，但毫無疑問他的親普丁姿態。川普指責烏克蘭發動戰爭，並稱烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基為獨裁者——這都是謊言——同時向基輔施壓，要求達成地球礦產協議並停止與俄羅斯的戰爭。現在，值得記住的是，川普並不是唯一一個不喜歡澤連斯基的人；拜登白宮也對他深深不信任。但川普以一種危險的道德相對主義來對待烏克蘭問題：他不在乎善惡，正如他在周五表示「厭倦」聽到普丁的戰爭罪行時所表現出來的。川普關心的是實力和影響力。他談到澤連斯基時說：“他沒有底牌。”川普將世界視為他的賭場，最重要的就是你的牌。

值得一讀：我的同事 Bret Stephens 和 M. Gessen 在這場圓桌會議上深入探討了烏克蘭、普丁、川普和歐洲議題，《紐約時報》雜誌觀點版編輯委員會今天也對烏克蘭問題發表了看法。 《紐約客》的蘇珊·格拉瑟撰寫了一篇有關川普「美國普丁化」的精彩文章，《華爾街日報》也對其對北約的影響進行了詳盡報道。

華盛頓最重要的長期遊戲：伊隆馬斯克。他和他的年輕打手在聯邦機構中橫行霸道，導致救災計畫、內政部和國稅局遭到進一步裁員。美國人希望政府有能力，而不是混亂；馬斯克也許喜歡打破常規，但政治引力定律顯示共和黨將付出代價。

值得一讀：Politico 的一篇報導講述了共和黨議員在公開場合為 DOGE 瘋狂解僱而感到恐慌； 《華盛頓郵報》的一篇類似報道，但涉及行政官員； 《華爾街日報》的這篇報導講述了 X 如何有效利用馬斯克的地位來賺錢。我的同事 Zeynep Tufekci 週五發表了一篇精彩的專欄文章，從數位線索揭示了馬斯克的所作所為。

未被注意到的最重要的進展：川普政府代表安德魯泰特 (Andrew Tate) 進行干 預。當談到為男性色狼辯護時，川普的道德相對主義就變得更加極端。

關注小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪：衛生與公眾服務部部長表示，他計劃嚴格審查兒童疫苗接種時間表、精神藥物和其他公共衛生問題，新計劃「沒有任何」限制。每一個在確認甘迺迪上任的同時卻對甘迺迪心存私疑慮的參議員，現在都要為兒童的未來健康承擔責任。

-----The Economist兩封面 主編Zanny Minton Beddoes說此期要點：

我從事記者工作已有三十年，在這三十年裡，很少有像這個星期這樣令人頭暈目眩的一周。 9/11襲擊、全球金融危機的某些時刻以及新冠疫情的初期，都是世界似乎在幾天之內發生根本性變化的罕見例子。對我們歐洲人來說，本週的地緣政治變化似乎同樣具有重大意義。唐納德·川普總統似乎正在拋棄烏克蘭，背棄自第二次世界大戰以來一直存在的跨大西洋聯盟，並完全認同弗拉基米爾·普丁的言論。

在上週末的慕尼黑安全會議上，美國對其歐洲盟友的公開態度轉向了徹底的敵視，我感覺自己彷彿坐在前排，親眼見證了歷史的誕生。自此以後，大西洋兩岸的事件發展迅速。在歐洲，人們感到恐慌，因為歐洲大陸的領導人認為，創建北約聯盟的國家現在似乎準備摧毀它。

同時，在美國，隨著川普總統任期的第一個月結束，他繼續快速突破自身權力的界限。為了反映這些重大事件，本週我們非常不同尋常地推出了兩期以川普先生為主角的不同封面。

在歐洲，我們的設計師讓川普坐在一張普丁風格的長桌首席，與俄羅斯總統進行磋商。你會注意到空著的座位——如果烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基沒有被川普排除在初步談判之外，他可能就坐在這裡。兩人之間的口水戰正在升級。在川普的領導下，烏克蘭被背叛，俄羅斯正在重建，美國不再能在戰爭時期向歐洲提供援助。這對歐洲安全的影響是嚴重的，但正如我們的領導人所說，歐洲大陸的領導人和人民尚未意識到這一點。

我們在其他地方的封面上展示了戴著王冠的川普先生。自從重返政壇以來，他讓自己的支持者歡欣鼓舞，而讓對手感到震驚。總統表示他正在清除浪費、欺詐和濫用。他的反對者警告說，他正在將國家帶入憲法危機，甚至是川普式的獨裁。我們的領導和隨行簡報以冷靜的事實分析和仔細的歷史回顧來評估川普先生任職的第一個月。總統有權為官僚機構設定新的目標。川普並不是橢圓形辦公室裡第一個抱持極端主義野心的人。他距離推翻美國的憲法秩序還很遠。但川普實現其目標的方式——有時甚至是肆意殘忍——是危險和錯誤的。而川普這個人，會考慮任何極端做法。為艱苦的鬥爭做好準備。

The Economist this week Highlights from the latest issue

Zanny Minton Beddoes Editor-in-chief

I have been a journalist for three decades and in that time I’ve experienced very few weeks as head-spinning as this one. The 9/11 attacks, certain moments in the global financial crisis and the early stages of the covid pandemic are some of the rare instances where the world seemed to change fundamentally in a matter of days. To those of us in Europe the geopolitical shifts of this week seem similarly monumental. President Donald Trump appears to be abandoning Ukraine, turning his back on the transatlantic alliance that has endured since the second world war, and buying wholesale into Vladimir Putin’s talking points.  At last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, where America’s public tone towards its European allies shifted towards outright hostility, I felt as if I had a front-row seat as history was being made. Events since then have moved quickly on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, there has been panic as the continent’s leaders contemplate that the country which created the NATO alliance now seems prepared to smash it.  In America, meanwhile, as Mr Trump completes the first month of his presidency, he continues apace to push the boundaries of his own power. To reflect these momentous events we, very unusually, have two different covers this week that feature Mr Trump.  In Europe our designers have placed Mr Trump at the head of a long, Putinesque table, conferring with Russia’s president. You will notice the empty seats—this is where someone like Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, might have been sitting had he not been shut out of initial talks by Mr Trump. A war of words between the pair is escalating. Under Mr Trump, Ukraine is being betrayed, Russia is being rehabilitated and America can no longer be counted on to come to Europe’s aid in wartime. The implications for Europe’s security are grave, but, as our leader argues, they have yet to sink in with the continent’s leaders and people. Our cover elsewhere features Mr Trump bedecked with a crown. Since returning to office he has made his base exultant and left his opponents reeling. The president says he is clearing out waste, fraud and abuse. His opponents warn he is frogmarching the country into a constitutional crisis, or even a Trumpian autocracy. Our leader and accompanying Briefing assess Mr Trump’s first month with calm fact-based analysis and a careful look at history. The president is entitled to set new goals for the bureaucracy. Mr Trump is hardly the first man in the Oval Office with maximalist ambitions. And he is still far from overturning America’s constitutional order. But the way Mr Trump is going about his goals—at times with wanton cruelty—is dangerous and wrong. And Mr Trump, being who he is, will contemplate any extreme. Get ready for a titanic struggle.

黃哲斌

【烏俄談判與台海效應：一名情報主管的觀點】

川普強勢介入烏俄談判，卻將烏克蘭排除在外，引發國際震動，《經濟學人》封面以「歐洲最糟的噩夢」形容此事（如圖）。

昨天，BBC招牌節目Newsnight專訪英國MI6（軍情六處）前處長Alex Younger爵士，提供一段冷靜、清晰、具說服力的國際情勢分析。他從英國與歐洲視角出發，也提到台灣與中國的地緣影響。

無需透過「007電影」，也知道MI6是全球頂尖情報機構之一；而Alex Younger是過去半世紀以來，任期最長的處長。任內，他揭露俄羅斯網軍攻擊、假訊息操縱西方國家的新型危機；也警告華為5G等中國科技的資安威脅，並指出東西方價值體系的碰撞，將產生重大安全後果。

Newsnight尚未將訪談放上YouTube頻道，我將其中七分鐘精華以ChatGPT翻譯，並整理摘要；等YouTube頻道更新，再補上節目連結。

請特別注意，這場烏克蘭缺席的不公平談判，Alex Younger點出美俄雙方對「領土」與「主權」的認知差距。順帶一提，他開頭提到1945年的「雅爾達條約」，簽署地點就位處烏俄爭執的克里米亞半島，歷史經常重覆無言的巧合。

烏俄牽動全球局勢，與其迷信「大棋論」，不妨聆聽這位老情報員的解析，才能在國際政治劇烈變動之際，為台灣找到最佳戰鬥位置，但願我們都有他的坦誠、智慧與勇氣。

以下是訪談摘要，在不違反原意的前提下，經過編輯濃縮：

Alex Younger：我們正處於一個新的時代，國際關係將不再由規則和多邊機構決定。未來，它們將由強人和交易決定。

我想起1945年的雅爾達條約，當時三位強權領袖（編注：羅斯福、邱吉爾與史達林），代表大國與強國，決定了小國的命運。我認為，這正是川普的思維模式，也是普丁的思維模式，還有習近平的思維模式。

但這並不是歐洲的思維模式。

這就是我們即將面對的世界，背後有整套理由支撐此一變局，而我不認為我們會回到過去的世界。

Q：為何你如此說？

Alex Younger：過去的世界建立在單極時刻（unipolar moment），當時美國擁有足夠的實力與意志，在全球範圍內發揮影響力。美國創造了所謂的全球化，建立了國際安全架構。

但現在，美國對其他國家的影響力已顯著降低，而且，美國維持全球領導地位的意志也已減弱。美國依然是強大無比的國家，低估美國是危險的，但它已經無法再單方面制定全球規則。

現在，我們看到的是交易談判，我們談論的是勢力範圍（spheres of influence）。唯一還未醒悟體認這個現實的，就是我們——歐洲。

Q：歐洲該如何應對？

Alex Younger：想要參與這場談判，我們需要「入場券」。遺憾的是，這個「入場券」並不是我們的軟實力或價值觀，而是硬實力。

這對歐洲來說，是一個重大挑戰——我們該如何發展自身的硬實力，確保我們在這場對話中，能擁有一席之地？

Q：川普是否會接受俄羅斯的立場？

Alex Younger：我不知道川普是否真正接受俄羅斯的立場，但我相信，俄羅斯人認為他會接受，這將嚴重削弱川普的談判籌碼。

我在阿富汗事件看到類似情況——川普在談判開始前，就給出最重要的讓步，這簡直是個荒謬的交易技巧。

不過，（關於烏俄）我們還不需過早判讀。這場談判仍處於非常早期的階段，過程將會極其複雜。

Q：俄羅斯是否需索過度？

Alex Younger：正如我所預期，俄羅斯已經把自己的要求推至極限，甚至超出他們的能力範圍。川普想在這種局勢下取得突破，幾乎不可能，除非接受赤裸裸的羞辱。

問題在於，川普和普丁談的根本不是同一件事。川普認為這是關於「領土」，很符合他的地產商背景——給俄羅斯一些土地，換取和平。

但這根本不是關於領土，而是關於「主權」。

普丁發動這場戰爭時已明確表示：烏克蘭作為一個主權與自由國家的存在，本身就是對俄羅斯安全的挑戰。普丁不會停止，直到烏克蘭不再是一個國家。

Q：俄羅斯的更大企圖

Alex Younger：此外，還有更多問題：北約是否應該限制自己在東歐的軍事存在，回到1997年的邊界？這已遠超出一般的談判範圍。我不認為川普仔細思考這些問題，但他現在已深陷其中。

如今，俄羅斯公開表示，無法接受西方軍隊進入烏克蘭，這在意料之中。因為俄羅斯的目標，是讓烏克蘭成為一個失去防衛能力的崩潰邊緣國家。

然而，我們談論的是烏克蘭的「安全保障」，這是和平談判的核心問題。目前看來，雙方的立場仍然無法調和。

Q：歐洲如何應對這場危機？

Alex Younger：作為一名歐洲人，我認為這是一記響亮警鐘。

雖然目前局勢撲朔迷離，我無法預測最終結果，但可以確定一件事：這場危機結束後，歐洲將承擔比以往更大的責任。

老實說，俄羅斯軍隊的表現尚可，雖然短期內不太可能直攻波蘭。但我們不能忽視這場戰爭帶來的巨大威脅，未來，俄羅斯可能進一步增強軍事實力。

我們應該擔心嗎？從經濟角度來看，歐洲北約的GDP是俄羅斯的10倍，我們完全有能力建立足夠軍力來應對威脅。如果我們不這麼做，那麼，這確實是一場噩夢。

Q：英國首相應該對川普說什麼？

Alex Younger：兩件事。

第一，我們需要組織並展現歐洲的實力，主動掌控局勢，體認到我們必須發展自身軍事力量，而且要迅速行動。

第二，我們必須讓川普明白，「讓烏克蘭失去主權」將是災難性的錯誤。

川普曾説，「不該讓普丁看起來像是贏家」，表明他理解這個概念，但他的語氣已經改變。

然後，設想此事對習近平會產生什麼影響——他正坐在台灣海峽對岸。這樣的事件，毫無疑問，會直接進入習近平的腦海，成為他的參考範例。

所以，這些都是我會建議英國首相深入思考的問題。

Q：未來的可能結局

Alex Younger：談判仍未成定局，但我們有一些籌碼：

1.俄羅斯經濟已無法長期支撐戰爭。

2.俄軍已有80萬人傷亡，即便是獨裁者普丁，也無法完全忽視這點。

3.普丁一直在等待川普上台，但如果川普的配合不如預期，俄羅斯將無計可施。

這是一個重要關鍵時刻，我們必須迅速組織起來，並展開行動。

（編注：關於歐洲是否已經動起來，附上一篇Politico的報導，放在下方。週末若有餘力，我會從不同角度評論此事。）

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68廖志峰、陳嘉宏和其他66人