中國正面臨比日本著名的「失去的十年」更危險的經濟崩潰(日本內幕Japan Inside) China is facing a far more dangerous economic collapse than Japan's famous lost decades

 

日本內幕

· 中國正面臨比日本著名的「失去的十年」更危險的經濟崩潰

中國目前正深陷嚴重的通縮漩渦，許多專家認為這與日本上世紀90年代的經濟停滯如出一轍。

日本的泡沫經濟破裂源自於私部門的失敗，而中國的危機根源在於國家本身的系統性失靈。

問題的核心在於中國地方政府和國營企業持有的巨額不良債權。

與日本政府最終可以救助私人銀行不同，中國共產黨若想解決這些貸款問題，就必須承認自身的政治失敗。

中國政府目前正採取短期策略，例如債務展期和將不良資產轉移到國有銀行，以延緩不可避免的崩潰。

這種策略很可能導致「殭屍經濟」的出現，資本僅用於維持垂死企業的生存，而非推動新的成長。

如果中國經濟真的崩潰，由此產生的不穩定可能引發大規模難民危機，直接衝擊日本的邊界。中國剩下的唯一出路，就是經歷一段漫長而痛苦的衰落期，這將迫使日本和世界各國必須應對一個長期動盪的鄰國。

Japan Inside

China is facing a far more dangerous economic collapse than Japan's famous lost decades

China is currently struggling with a massive deflationary spiral that many experts say mirrors the economic stagnation Japan faced in the 1990s.

While Japan's bubble burst due to private sector failures, China’s crisis is rooted in the systematic failure of the state itself.

The core of the problem lies in the staggering amount of bad debt held by Chinese local governments and state-owned entities.

Unlike Japan, where the government could eventually bail out private banks, the Chinese Communist Party cannot fix these loans without admitting its own political failure.

The Chinese government is currently using short-term tactics like debt rollovers and shifting toxic assets to state banks to delay the inevitable.

This strategy will likely lead to a "zombie economy" where capital is used only to keep dying companies alive rather than fueling new growth.

If the Chinese economy truly collapses, the resulting instability could spark a massive refugee crisis that would directly impact Japan’s borders.

The only remaining path for China is a long period of painful decay that will force Japan and the world to manage a permanently unstable neighbor.