人工智慧概述
保羅·克魯曼在其1994年發表於《外交事務》雜誌的極具影響力的文章《亞洲奇蹟的神話》中指出，東亞經濟體（“亞洲四小龍”）的快速增長並非源於可持續的生產率提升，而是由大規模的資本投資和勞動力動員所驅動。他曾將它們的成長比喻為蘇聯。
關於克魯曼20世紀90年代對亞洲經濟觀點的要點： 亞洲奇蹟的神話：克魯曼認為，與蘇聯一樣，東亞的成長是基於「投入更多資源給系統」（資本、勞動力），而非效率或技術的提升。 收益遞減：他警告說，由於成長依賴資源投入，因此會受到收益遞減的影響，最終必然放緩。 並非奇蹟：克魯曼認為，所謂的「奇蹟」並非源自於卓越的經濟管理，而是高儲蓄率和教育水準的提高，並聲稱它們的生產力成長並非異常突出。 危機預見：雖然克魯曼並未準確預測1997-1998年亞洲金融危機的爆發時間，但他的分析表明，快速的、投資驅動型成長是脆弱的。 關注投入：他將這種情況與西方經濟體的成長進行了對比，他認為西方經濟體的成長歷來是由技術進步所驅動的。 克魯曼的分析在當時頗具爭議，但在1997年亞洲金融危機之後引起了廣泛關注，因為它似乎與「經濟奇蹟」被過度炒作且建立在脆弱基礎之上的觀點不謀而合。
AI Overview
In his influential 1994 Foreign Affairs article, "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," Paul Krugman argued that the rapid growth of East Asian economies (the "Tigers") was driven by massive capital investment and increased labor mobilization, not sustainable productivity gains. He famously likened their growth to that of the Soviet Union.
Key points regarding Krugman's 1990s views on Asian economies:The Myth of Asia's Miracle: Krugman contended that, like the Soviet Union, East Asian growth was based on "putting more inputs into the system" (capital, labor) rather than improvements in efficiency or technology.
Diminishing Returns: He warned that because growth was based on resource input, it was subject to diminishing returns and would inevitably slow down.
Not a Miracle: Krugman argued the "miracle" was not due to superior economic management but to high savings rates and increased education, claiming their productivity growth was not exceptional.
Anticipation of Crisis: While he did not predict the exact timing of the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis, his analysis suggested that the rapid, investment-driven growth was fragile.
Focus on Inputs: He contrasted this with the growth in Western economies, which he argued was historically driven by technological progress.
Krugman's analysis was controversial at the time but gained significant attention after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, as it appeared to align with the idea that the "miracle" had been overhyped and rested on fragile foundations.
AI Overview
Nobel economists generally praise Taiwan’s investment landscape, highlighting its "inclusive institutions," strong rule of law, and high-tech innovation as drivers of long-term prosperity. They emphasize that Taiwan's robust, democratic, and meritocratic system fosters a secure environment for sustained economic growth and advanced technology investment. Institutional Strength: 2024 Nobel laureate James Robinson emphasized that Taiwan's "inclusive institutions" (robust rule of law, intellectual property protection) provide the foundation for its economic success.
Technological Focus: Historically, laureates like Robert Fogel have highlighted the importance of education and investing in high-tech industries, shifting away from labor-intensive models.
China Investment Context: In 2002, Nobel winner James Heckman argued that restricting high-tech investment (like 8-inch wafer foundries) into China was "short-sighted" and that such moves should not be overly politicized.
Stability and Growth: 2004 Laureate Finn Kydland expressed confidence in Taiwan’s economic growth potential and emphasized that consistent policy and innovation are key to attracting investment.
Risk Factors: Some economists have cautioned that while Taiwan offers a strong environment, it should continue to improve regulatory transparency to enhance foreign investment.
Taiwanese officials, in discussions with laureates, have noted the necessity of leveraging limited resources for economic development while navigating external risks.
AI Overview
In his influential 1994 Foreign Affairs article, "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," Paul Krugman argued that the rapid growth of East Asian economies (the "Tigers") was driven by massive capital investment and increased labor mobilization, not sustainable productivity gains. He famously likened their growth to that of the Soviet Union.
Key points regarding Krugman's 1990s views on Asian economies:The Myth of Asia's Miracle: Krugman contended that, like the Soviet Union, East Asian growth was based on "putting more inputs into the system" (capital, labor) rather than improvements in efficiency or technology.
Diminishing Returns: He warned that because growth was based on resource input, it was subject to diminishing returns and would inevitably slow down.
Not a Miracle: Krugman argued the "miracle" was not due to superior economic management but to high savings rates and increased education, claiming their productivity growth was not exceptional.
Anticipation of Crisis: While he did not predict the exact timing of the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis, his analysis suggested that the rapid, investment-driven growth was fragile.
Focus on Inputs: He contrasted this with the growth in Western economies, which he argued was historically driven by technological progress.
Krugman's analysis was controversial at the time but gained significant attention after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, as it appeared to align with the idea that the "miracle" had been overhyped and rested on fragile foundations.
Paul Krugman
, a Nobel Prize-winning economist (2008) known for his work on international trade and new trade theory, retired from writing his regular New York Times opinion column in December 2024 after 25 years. He continues to analyze economic issues through his Substack newsletter rather than the NYT.- Background: Formerly taught at MIT, Stanford, and Princeton.
- Trade Focus: Renowned for "new trade theory" and "new economic geography".
- Recent Activity: Continued writing in his newsletter after his final NYT column, maintaining a focus on global economic issues.
- Taiwan Investment: While Krugman has not recently focused specifically on Taiwan investment in his final NYT columns, he has extensively analyzed global trade, supply chains, and the tech sector, which includes analyzing the significance of companies like TSMC.
人工智慧概覽
諾貝爾經濟學獎得主普遍對台灣的投資環境給予高度評價，強調其「包容性制度」、健全的法治以及高科技創新是推動長期繁榮的動力。他們強調，台灣健全、民主且精英化的體制為經濟的持續成長和先進技術投資創造了安全的環境。制度優勢：2024年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主詹姆斯羅賓遜強調，台灣的「包容性制度」（健全的法治、智慧財產權保護）為其經濟成功奠定了基礎。
技術重點：歷屆諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，如羅伯特·福格爾，都強調了教育和投資高科技產業的重要性，並指出應逐步擺脫勞動密集模式。
中國投資背景：2002年，諾貝爾經濟學獎得主詹姆斯‧赫克曼認為，限制高科技投資（例如8吋晶圓代工廠）進入中國是「短視」的做法，不應過度政治化此類舉措。
穩定與成長：2004年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主芬恩‧基德蘭(Finn Kydland)對台灣的經濟成長潛力充滿信心，並強調政策的一致性和創新是吸引投資的關鍵。
風險因素：一些經濟學家警告說，儘管台灣擁有良好的投資環境，但仍應繼續提高監管透明度以促進外國投資。
台灣官員在與諾貝爾獎得主的討論中指出，在應對外部風險的同時，必須充分利用有限的資源進行經濟發展。
台灣經濟成功歸功於「包容性制度」：諾貝爾獎得主
2025年12月16日－諾貝爾經濟學獎得主詹姆斯·羅賓遜(James Robinson)在台北的一次演講中表示，台灣的包容性制度使其成為世界上最傑出的經濟體之一…
聚焦台灣
您是否想找：亞洲投資領域的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主
人工智慧概覽
多位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主近期對亞洲的投資、發展和經濟政策進行了分析、訪問或提供了戰略建議，尤其關注中國大陸、香港和韓國。
積極參與亞洲經濟投資討論的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主包括：
約瑟夫‧史蒂格利茨（2001年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）：他於2025年11月訪問香港，出席中國經濟與政策國際論壇。儘管中國經濟成長放緩，但他對中國的經濟前景表示樂觀。他指出，中國的對外開放政策仍在持續推動經濟成長，並建議香港將經濟多元化發展到科技和醫療保健等領域。
麥可‧史賓塞（2001年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）：他是多家投資公司（Jasper Ridge Partners、General Atlantic Partners）的高級顧問，也是總部位於新加坡的金融科技集團Surfin的董事會成員。他強調了人工智慧在香港和大灣區的應用潛力。
詹姆斯·羅賓遜（2024年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）：他分析了韓國的經濟發展，指出韓國以出口為導向的發展政策和「包容性制度」使其擺脫了貧困。他也探討了中國在製度經濟學中的地位，分析了中國和其他經濟體如何透過不同的製度框架發展。
達龍·阿西莫格魯（2024年獲獎者）：分析了中國「掠奪/壓制」模式對其長期成長的影響，以及中國在國際貿易緊張局勢中所扮演的角色。
菲利普·阿吉翁（2025年獲獎者）：因其在創新驅動型成長方面的研究而備受認可，該研究與亞洲的技術進步密切相關。
亞洲投資重點領域：
香港：因其法律體系和作為連接中國與世界的橋樑的潛力而受到認可。
中國：重點關注從「世界工廠」向人工智慧/創新驅動型成長的轉型，但同時也對永續性和國家權力的作用表示擔憂。
韓國：因其成功轉型為高附加價值工業經濟而備受矚目。
AI Overview
Nobel economists generally praise Taiwan’s investment landscape, highlighting its "inclusive institutions," strong rule of law, and high-tech innovation as drivers of long-term prosperity. They emphasize that Taiwan's robust, democratic, and meritocratic system fosters a secure environment for sustained economic growth and advanced technology investment. Institutional Strength: 2024 Nobel laureate James Robinson emphasized that Taiwan's "inclusive institutions" (robust rule of law, intellectual property protection) provide the foundation for its economic success.
Technological Focus: Historically, laureates like Robert Fogel have highlighted the importance of education and investing in high-tech industries, shifting away from labor-intensive models.
China Investment Context: In 2002, Nobel winner James Heckman argued that restricting high-tech investment (like 8-inch wafer foundries) into China was "short-sighted" and that such moves should not be overly politicized.
Stability and Growth: 2004 Laureate Finn Kydland expressed confidence in Taiwan’s economic growth potential and emphasized that consistent policy and innovation are key to attracting investment.
Risk Factors: Some economists have cautioned that while Taiwan offers a strong environment, it should continue to improve regulatory transparency to enhance foreign investment.
Taiwanese officials, in discussions with laureates, have noted the necessity of leveraging limited resources for economic development while navigating external risks.
Nobel laureate economists have praised Taiwan’s "inclusive institutions," robust rule of law, and meritocratic environment as key drivers for long-term economic growth and investment
. Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining a competitive, democratic society to attract foreign investment, while noting the need to manage structural challenges like export concentration and to foster technological innovation.Key perspectives from Nobel laureates on Taiwan's investment environment include:
- Inclusive Institutions (James Robinson): In 2025, Robinson highlighted that Taiwan's long-term success is rooted in institutions that create broad-based incentives, intellectual property protections, and a meritocratic, democratic society.
- Encouraging High-Tech Investment (James Heckman): In 2002, Nobel winner James Heckman argued that Taiwan should allow its chipmakers to invest in China, viewing fears that such investments would bolster China's ability to attack Taiwan as "short-sighted".
- Financial Stability and Growth (Robert Engle): In 2005, Engle emphasized that transparent financial reforms would attract foreign investment and that investors should maintain faith in Taiwan's economy even during downturns.
- Export-Led Growth (Historical Context): Taiwan’s economic success is often cited as a model for export-oriented strategies, driven by ideas regarding currency devaluation and market-based allocation.
Recent discussions in 2025 continue to focus on strengthening Taiwan's scientific potential, particularly in technology, as a key driver for investment.
Did you mean: nobel economists in investment asian
Several Nobel laureates in Economic Sciences have recently analyzed, visited, or provided strategic advice regarding investment, development, and economic policy in Asia, particularly focusing on China, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
Key Nobel laureates active in discussing Asian economic investment include:
- Joseph Stiglitz (2001 Laureate): Visited Hong Kong in November 2025 for the International Forum on China's Economy and Policy, expressing optimism about China's economic prospects despite slowing growth. He noted that China's opening-up policy continues to drive growth and advised Hong Kong to diversify into sectors like technology and healthcare.
- Michael Spence (2001 Laureate): A senior adviser to investment firms (Jasper Ridge Partners, General Atlantic Partners) and board member of Singapore-based fintech group Surfin. He has highlighted the potential for AI applications in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area.
- James Robinson (2024 Laureate): Analyzed South Korea's economic development, noting that its export-led development policies and "inclusive institutions" enabled it to escape poverty. He has also discussed China's place in institutional economics, analyzing how its, and other, economies develop through different institutional frameworks.
- Daron Acemoglu (2024 Laureate): Has analyzed the impact of China's "extractive/repressive" model on its long-term growth and its, as well as its, role in international trade tensions.
- Philippe Aghion (2025 Laureate): Recognized for his work on innovation-driven growth, relevant to Asia's technological advancements.
Key Focus Areas for Investment in Asia:
- Hong Kong: Endorsed for its legal system and potential to serve as a bridge between China and the world.
- China: Focus on transitioning from "world factory" to AI/innovation-driven growth, though with concerns regarding sustainability and the role of state power.
- South Korea: Noted for its success in shifting to a high-value industrial economy.
台灣科技業，誰是大英雄？
2025年，台灣上市電子公司總共創造出1.18兆美元的營業額，如果把跨國企業在台灣的價值計算在內，台灣的成就是人類工業發展史的奇蹟，台灣也證明了小型工業國家，可以靠代工生存發展。
2025年台灣GDP成長8.63%，2026也可望在6%以上，未來十年，甚至二十年，台灣有望持盈保泰，那麼台灣的產業模式就如同1970年代四小龍時代一樣，深富研究的價值。
1970與1980年代，研究四小龍的西方學者絡繹於途，他們希望在新興國家複製四小龍的成功經驗。
今天台灣半導體與ICT供應鏈的成功經驗，不僅有助於新興國家，甚至對德國、日本、法國、英國與東協國家都有深意。
台灣應該有一段對國際社會的論述，我是有機會近身觀察這些英雄的「白頭宮女」，讓我來試試吧！
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