全球貿易戰山雨欲來
全球貿易戰山雨欲來 克魯曼稱「禍首是大陸」:川普4弱點恐吞敗。
2008年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯曼。路透2008年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯曼表示,全球貿易戰山雨欲來,縱使禍首不是美國總統當選人川普,但川普的四大弱點恐害美國輸掉貿易戰。
克魯曼在紐約時報專欄指出,這場全球貿易戰的禍首是中國大陸,因為作為世界經濟強權卻不負責任。
1. 北京政策謬誤釀全球貿易戰
中國大陸經濟飛快成長時代已成過去,工作適齡人口在大約十年前觸頂後便走下坡,科技進展顯得慢如牛步,靠投資驅動成長的經濟發展模式如今已不合時宜,經濟領航者卻又似乎不願順應情勢轉舵,將經濟體系從偏重投資轉為消費導向。北京當局推出的刺激措施一再瞄準擴大產能,而不是藉賦權消費者將那些產能善加利用。結果便是產能大到內需市場無法消化。
要解決問題,明顯的出路就是擴大出口,藉由維持巨額貿易順差,讓中國大陸經濟持續擴張。有多巨大?中國大陸貿易出超將近1兆美元,而且走勢仍趨升。(實際數字可能更高,因為有玩數字遊戲使順差看來較小的嫌疑)
然而,世界其他國家不會被動接受對中國大陸貿易逆差如此巨大。世人從2000年代「中國震撼」學到的教訓是,不論自由貿易的實際優點為何,進口激增久而久之就會對國內勞工和社區造成無可接受的傷害。況且北京是獨裁政權,欠缺民主價值觀,坐視其掌控具戰略重要性的產業,也將構成無可接受的風險。
這正是為什麼拜登政府對北京仍採取相當強硬的立場,藉延續川普任內實施的關稅,設法抑制中國大陸在尖端科技領域的進步。歐盟對中國大陸製的電動車課徵高關稅,原因也在此,這或許只是貿易紛爭擴大的開始。
2. 川普打貿易戰的四大致命傷
因此,貿易戰山雨欲來,從某些角度來看或許已經展開了。川普2.0將帶領美國打這場貿易戰,克魯曼指出他有四大弱點卻不自知:無知、失焦、任用親信、容易受騙。
無知:儘管全美各地的企業正打算調漲價格,以因應關稅衝擊,川普仍堅稱關稅不會傷害美國消費者。由此可見,川普本人或向他獻策者,都不懂全球貿易如何運作。在貿易衝突時刻,這絕不是好事。
失焦:川普擬實施全面性的關稅,不只是針對中國大陸而已,那將推升許許多多美國企業的成本,並且在亟需國際攜手因應之際疏遠美國友邦。
任用親信:美國總統握有很大的裁量權,可允准哪些特定的公司可享關稅豁免。在川普第一任期間,這些豁免權不成比例地給了與共和黨政治關係密切的公司。若以為這種情況在川普2.0時代不會再發生或變本加厲,就未免太天真了。
容易受騙:在川普第一任,待簽署他所謂的「歷史性貿易協議」後,就停止提高關稅。按該協議,中國大陸同意採購總價值2,000億美元的美國產品,結果實際買了多少?什麼也沒買。
克魯曼的結論是,中國大陸試圖藉出口解決政策錯誤導致的經濟問題,釀成了嚴重的貿易紛爭。但美國卻選出一個在因應貿易紛爭方面也許最糟糕的領導人。
※2024-11-15 18:31 經濟日報/ 編譯湯淑君/綜合外電川普
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Dem.
Rep.
50
3 Flips
52
President ›
224
Harris
Trump
270to win
292
House ›
183
Dem.
Rep.
218
200
‘TRUMP’S AMERICA’
VICTORY CHANGES NATION’S SENSE OF ITSELF
Populist Revolt Against Elite’s Vision of the U.S.
In the end, Donald Trump is not the historical aberration some thought he was, but a force reshaping the modern U.S., writes Peter Baker in an analysis.
7 min read
Donald Trump’s Return to Power Ushers in New Era of Uncertainty
He played on fears of immigrants and economic worries. His victory signaled the advent of isolationism, sweeping tariffs and score settling.
7 min read
Doug Mills/The New York Times
LIVE
Nov. 6, 2024, 3:44 p.m. ET2m ago
Harris Congratulates Trump and Plans to Deliver Concession Speech
Jack Smith begins discussing how to wind down his prosecutions of Trump.
17m ago
Top Republicans hail Trump’s victory, and even G.O.P. critics congratulate him.
25m ago
What is Project 2025, and why did Trump distance himself from it during the campaign?
33m ago
See more updates ›
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