2015年11月13日 星期五

Ezra Vogel 傅高義:習近平、馬習會。從歷史記憶和相互認知出發,避免中日沖突等等

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Q. and A.: Ezra F. Vogel on China’s Shifting Relations With Japan and Taiwan

時報看中國

傅高義:習近平時代的中日和兩岸關係

Ezra F. Vogel, 85, a sociologist at Harvard University, has spent a lifetime studying China and Japan, writing a best-sellingbiography of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and producing widely read studies of Japanese society. Now, dispirited by mounting tensions between the two countries, he has set out to promote a deeper understanding of the relationship between China and Japan across time. Mr. Vogel is working on a book that will explore moments in history when China and Japan were in closest contact, beginning with Japanese missions to China during the Tang dynasty (618-907) to study Buddhism, medicine and architecture. He will examine the period of 1895 through 1937, when many Chinese went to Japan to study, as well as the legacy of Japan’s invasion of China in what became World War II, played out in continuing disputes over history and territory. He also plans to investigate the export of Japanese culture into China, including movies and technology, in more recent times. In an interview during a visit to the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing, he discussed relations between China and Japan, as well as some of the challenges facing Chinese leaders today.
現年85歲的哈佛大學社會學家傅高義(Ezra F. Vogel)傾畢生精力研究中國和日本,他撰寫的中國領導人鄧小平的傳記相當暢銷,他對日本社會的研究也贏得了許多讀者。如今,這兩個國家之間日益加深的緊張令他失望,於是他着手向人們介紹,中日兩國之間源遠流長的關係。傅高義正在寫一本書,探討兩國密切往來的歷史時期,以唐代(618年至907年)日本遣唐使到中國研究佛教、醫學和建築為開端,陸續談到1895年至1937年,很多中國人前去日本留學的那段時期。他還會談到,日本在二戰之前和二戰期間侵略中國的過去,在持續不斷的領土和歷史糾紛中發揮的影響。他還計劃探討日本近年來對中國的文化輸出,包括電影和技術方面。傅高義前往北京大學斯坦福中心訪問時,接受了記者的採訪,討論了中國和日本之間的關係,以及中國領導人如今面臨的一些挑戰。
Q. It has now been 70 years since the end of World War II, but animosity persists, and Chinese leaders routinely call on Japan to apologize for its wartime actions. Why has it been so difficult to find common ground?
問:二戰結束已經70年了,仇恨依然存在,中國領導人經常敦促日本對二戰時期的行為道歉。為什麼要達成共識如此困難?
A. The Chinese feel they are an awfully grand civilization, and that the world was turned upside down after the mid-19th century when the imperialists came in. They think: “We have suffered. Finally, we’ve made it. Japan has been looking down on us since the late 19th century. Now our economy has passed Japan’s. Bow down and apologize for all the horrible things you did.” That’s a fundamental psychological underpinning.
答:中國人認為自己有非常燦爛的文明,但在19世紀中葉之後,帝國主義的侵略讓他們的世界發生了天翻地覆的變化。他們認為:「我們遭受了很多苦難,最後終於挺了過來。日本從19世紀末期就一直瞧不起我們。現在我們的經濟已經超過了日本,那就為你們做過的醜惡行徑彎腰道歉吧。」就是這樣一種基本心態。
2012年,在中國昆明,一名示威者抗議日本對東海有爭議的島嶼採取行動。這是導致兩國關係緊張的問題之一。
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
2012年,在中國昆明,一名示威者抗議日本對東海有爭議的島嶼採取行動。這是導致兩國關係緊張的問題之一。
Secondly, I think World War II was not discussed and dealt with in a kind of open way. The Cold War interfered, and they didn’t talk to each other much. They never really worked out their feelings about the war, and there were never formal agreements about reparations and things like that. I also think that the anti-Japanese movement has been helpful for Chinese leaders after the Tiananmen incident [the military suppression of democracy protests in 1989], in providing a motif to get the students to support the leadership.
其次,我覺得他們還沒有以一種開放的態度來討論和對待二戰。冷戰是個干擾,中日之間很少交談,兩國從來沒有真正理清過自己對二戰的感情,從未對賠償之類的事情簽訂過正式協議。我還覺得,在天安門事件(1989年對民主抗議活動進行軍事鎮壓)發生之後,反日活動對中國領導人很有用,它提供了一個主題,來讓學生們支持中共的領導。
Q. To mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the war in September, President Xi Jinping presided over amilitary parade in Beijing. What message was China trying to send?
問:今年9月,為了紀念抗戰結束70周年,習近平在北京舉行了一場閱兵式。中國在試圖傳達怎樣的信息?
A. They wanted to show that China is a major power, but they also wanted to show the people that this is a strong government, and that they have a lot to be proud of. They want the military to be in line, and the whole country to be unified.
答:他們想展示中國是一個大國,但他們也想向人們展示,中國政府強大有力,有很多值得自豪的地方。他們希望軍隊聽指揮,全國上下一條心。
Q. How would you describe the attitude of China’s leaders today toward Japan?
問:您如何形容中國領導人如今對日本的態度?
A. The current leadership did not have much experience in foreign policy when they came into power. They are the Cultural Revolution generation. They didn’t have direct contact with foreign countries or cultures in their formative years. There’s a kind of mixture now between the pragmatic people, who realize they need Japanese technology and trade and tourism and so forth as part of the global international picture, and those who are furious and think that to unify the country, unity against Japan is very important.
答:這一屆領導班子上台時沒有太多外交政策方面的經驗。他們是文革一代,在性格形成期沒有直接接觸外國或外國文化。現在,一些人是實用派,認識到自己需要日本的的技術、貿易、旅遊等,認為這些是全球國際格局的一部分;而另一些人則心懷憤怒,認為全國上下團結一致來反日是非常重要的。
Q. What can China learn from Japan as it deals with aslowing economy?
問:在應對經濟日漸放緩這個問題上,中國能從日本學到什麼?
A. The Chinese situation has a lot of differences. I think they’re trying very hard now to deal with the inequality problem. Xi Jinping and his generation don’t have enough experience. They think they can get rid of it in five years, but that’s unrealistic. My own guess is — I’m not an economist, I don’t get involved in those details — but 6.5 percent economic growth for five years sounds to me a little high. I think you sort of go with the punches, you don’t panic, you don’t let the bubble get too much bigger. The Japanese did make mistakes in the 1980s in letting the bubble get too big. 
答:中國的情況有很大的不同。我覺得他們正在非常努力地解決不平等問題。習近平和他那一代人經驗不足。他們以為自己能夠在五年之內消除這個問題,但這是不現實的。我自己的猜測是——當然我不是經濟專家,也不討論細節——五年保持6.5%的經濟增長,這個目標在我聽來有點高。我認為得在一定程度上隨機應變,不要驚慌失措,也不讓泡沫變得更大。日本80年代的確犯過錯,讓泡沫變得太大了。
Q. President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan, a former student of yours, and President Xi met in Singapore recently, the first time the two sides had met since the Communists came to power in 1949. What do you think led to the decision to meet?
問:台灣總統馬英九(Ma Ying-jeou)曾是您的學生。最近,他在新加坡與中國國家主席習近平舉行了會晤,這是雙方自共產黨1949年掌權後首次會面。您認為是什麼原因促使雙方決定會面?
A. Ma Ying-jeou is a very principled guy who really cares about doing good things for his Taiwan. I think he feels that at the end of his career he wants to do something really constructive, to take a big step toward closer relations that cannot be undone. This is very dramatic.
答:馬英九是一個非常有原則的人,真的有意為自己領導的台灣做些好事。我想他是覺得在自己任期快結束時,希望做些真正有建設性的事情,向著建立更親密的、無法解除的關係邁進一步。這是非常引人注目的。
For Xi Jinping, my hunch is that he wants to show he’s making some progress in the relationship — that he’s not a weak character. I think he must calculate that this will constrain Tsai Ing-wen [presidential candidate of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party], assuming she becomes the new leader in Taiwan.
對於習近平,我的直覺是他希望表明自己在兩岸關係上取得了一定的進步,不是軟弱之人。我想他肯定在考慮,如果蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen反對黨民進黨的總統候選人)成為台灣新一任領導人後,此事會對她形成制約。
Q. You have studied the life of Deng Xiaoping in great detail. How does he compare with President Xi, who is often said to be the most influential leader since Deng?
問:您非常詳細地研究過鄧小平的一生,而習近平常被說成是自鄧小平之後,最有影響力的領導人。應該如何比較鄧小平和習近平這兩人呢?
A. Xi Jinping wants to be a game changer. He wants to have one centralized authority. I think in that sense you can compare him with Mao and Deng. I think Deng was undertaking a very basic reform structure. And what Xi Jinping is trying to do is take a structure that’s pretty well formed now and adapt it to deal with various problems.
答:習近平想改變遊戲規則,他希望擁有集中的權威。我認為在這一點上可以把他和毛澤東及鄧小平相提並論。我覺得鄧小平當年是在制定一個非常基本的改革結構。而習近平現在試圖做的,則是利用現在已經相當完整的結構,並對其進行調整,以應對各種各樣的問題。
I disagree with people who think Xi Jinping is the strongest leader since Mao. Deng Xiaoping was a military hero, he had spent six years abroad, he was a local leader, he had been one of the first thousand or so members of the Communist Party, he had foreign policy experience, he had a breadth and depth of contact.
有人認為習近平是毛澤東以來最強有力的領導人,我不同意他們的觀點。鄧小平是一名軍事英雄,在國外待過六年,當過地方領導人,也是最早加入共產黨的大約1000名黨員之一。他有外交政策方面的經驗,有深入廣泛的接觸。
Xi Jinping is the new man on the block. He had no work experience in Beijing. To get control over a large organization, you can’t compare with the power and authority that Deng had. Xi’s got tough problems to deal with, but it will take him a while to do it.
習近平是個新手,他沒有在北京的工作經驗。要想控制一個龐大的機構,他的實力和權威不能和鄧小平相比。習近平有棘手的問題需要處理,但要花些時間。
赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)是《紐約時報》駐京記者。





























































































哈佛名教授傅高義:習藉馬習會制約蔡英文
新頭殼newtalk |  綜合報導

傅高義(Ezra F. Vogel)在接受紐時專訪時表示,馬習會對於中國國家主席習近平而言,是希望表明自己在兩岸關係上取得了一定的進步,不是軟弱之人。圖:翻攝維基百科
現年85歲的哈佛大學社會學家、研究日本與中國的專家傅高義(Ezra F. Vogel)在接受紐約時報專訪時表示,馬習會對於中國國家主席習近平而言,是希望表明自己在兩岸關係上取得了一定的進步,不是軟弱之人。傅高義說,「我想他肯定在考慮,如果蔡英文成為台灣新一任領導人後,此事會對她形成制約。」

曾出版過鄧小平傳記《鄧小平改變中國》一書的傅高義在受訪時,針對外界評論現任習近平為毛澤東以來最具權力的中共領導人的說法時表示,習近平想改變遊戲規則,他希望擁有集中的權威。他認為,在這一點上可以把他和毛澤東、鄧小平相提並論。

但傅高義說,有人認為習近平是毛澤東以來最強有力的領導人,「我不同意他們的觀點。」

他認為,鄧小平是一名軍事英雄,在國外待過6年,當過地方領導人,也是最早加入共產黨的大約1000名黨員之一。他有外交政策方面的經驗,有深入廣泛的接觸。

傅高義指出,習近平是個新手,他沒有在北京的工作經驗。要想控制一個龐大的機構,他的實力和權威不能和鄧小平相比。習近平有棘手的問題需要處理,但要花些時間。

2012年6月,傅高義前來台灣宣傳他的著作《鄧小平改變中國》(中文版)時,在接受媒體訪問時曾表示,鄧小平若健在,可能對「一國兩制」這個詞有新的提法,但精神不變,鄧小平不急於統一,會讓兩岸當前的良好形勢延續下去。他相信,中共18大後的新一代領導人也會延續鄧小平的對台方針。

傅高義是日本專家,曾經在20世紀80年代出書討論「日本第一」的現象,在美國造成風潮。他同時鑽研中國事務達半世紀之久,精通中、日文,窮10年之功,完成被公認是對鄧小平功過最具權威的巨著。書中有專節提到鄧小平30年前提出的「一國兩制」,迄今仍是中共對台政策的基本方針。但他在書中對六四事件的觀點,也被認為過於袒護鄧小平。

傅高義:從歷史記憶和相互認知出發,避免中日沖突

發佈時間: 2014-06-27 10:00 作者: 傅高義|譯者:盧昊字號:   點擊: 2323次
( 共識網配圖)

  【內容提要】中日關係的難題集中在日本所稱“尖閣列島”和中國所稱“釣魚島”的領土爭議上。中日之間發生意外和衝突的危險確實存在。一旦意外情況發生,中日要再次和解,可能要推遲數十年,甚至更長時間。這對於中日以及世界其他國家都是不利的。要避免中日關係衝突,應該啟動改善中日關係的艱難進程,深切希望中日兩國和平共處,相互合作。日本應避免採取富有挑釁性的舉動,中國則不以武力施壓。高級別的領導人會晤和中日兩國民眾之間的交流應當不斷進行。

  【關鍵詞】中日關係/中日沖突/釣魚島/領土爭端/相互認知

  中日兩國能否尋找到方法降低衝突風險,阻止可能持續數十年的敵對延續下去?在新的時代,兩國能否同時作為強大的現代化國家而和平共處?

  如果不能直面源自日本率先實現現代化的19世紀末、目前仍未解決的歷史問題所激發出的強烈情緒,現在兩國間圍繞領土爭端並因安倍首相參拜靖國神社而進一步升級的緊張局勢是無法被化解的。很多中國人由於本國曾被小小的島國日本超越而一直深感恥辱,也因為遭受日本侵略帶來的深重苦難而憤怒,這種憤怒幫助毛澤東在1949年統一了中國。日本依然在努力,希望將對本國歷史的驕傲,與因過去給鄰國帶來劫難而做出的追悔結合在一起。現在,中國領導人要應對尚未解決的中日曆史問題,以及關於日本軍國主義復甦的憂慮,而日本領導人則面對著一個反日情緒上升、經濟和軍事規模已經超過日本,且還在快速發展的中國。

  目前,中日關係的難題集中在島嶼領土爭議,即日本所稱的“尖閣列島”或中國所稱的“釣魚島”上。發生意外和衝突的危險確實存在。一旦意外情況發生,中日之間要再次和解可能要推遲數十年,甚至更長時間。這對於日本、中國以及世界其他國家都是不利的。一些理由可以解釋為什麼這些荒涼的島礁成為緊張局勢的焦點:周邊海域的海洋資源有一定價值,兩國漁民為滿足全球漁業市場的需求,已將本國近海捕撈殆盡,轉而將目標投向遠洋,因此就產生了利益爭奪。在中國大陸聯手台灣、方便艦船進出太平洋的背景下,這些島礁的地理位置具有了軍事戰略價值。但是,這些理由都不足以解釋北京和東京之間情緒化的、充斥著歷史記憶因素的相互反應。

  兩國各有將近九成的民眾都對對方國家持負面看法。中國,電視台經常播放關於二戰中日本士兵暴行的影視節目,互聯網上則有很多對日本人的仇恨言論一些中國軍方將領公開放出自信言論,稱如果爆發戰爭,中方會成為勝利者。在日本,電視節目中敵視中國的言論稍少一些,但是中方飛機和艦船逼近日本、威脅尖閣列島(釣魚島),以及中國一些民眾由於憤怒而攻擊在華日本人、打砸日貨的報導畫面也會反復出現,刺激日本民眾加深恐懼和厭惡感日方的軍方高官們不會公開提及日本對中國的軍事優勢,但私下里他們相信,如果發生衝突,日本會取得勝利,而且必要的時候,美國也會向日本施以援手。

  中國領導人確實擔憂日本軍國主義會死灰復燃。美國人在二戰期間也和日本人打過仗,但和日本人之間建立最為緊密的聯繫不是源自發動侵略的日本軍人,而是二戰後與日本平民建立的私人交往。1958~1960年間,我首次訪日並居住在那裡,此後每年我都要訪日。我和其他1945年後在日本居住過的美國人都了解到日本人民是如何徹底拋棄了軍國主義的中國和日本打交道最密切的時候是二戰時期,而且中國媒體一直渲染這段歷史記憶。中國領導人警告日本不要復活軍國主義,但與此同時,中國增強軍備,對日本施壓,這使得日本更加堅信應該解除對擴張軍備的自我限制。

  上世紀80年代,由於鄧小平領導下的中國採取了積極行動,中日兩國間似乎可能建立起面向21世紀的和睦關係。鄧小平1978年訪日時曾說,中日之間有2500年的交往歷史,其中僅有50年是不幸的時期。他主張重新發展中日關係,使其達到前所未有的高度。在日本,鄧小平會見了天皇、福田赳夫首相和日本經濟界領袖,會談進行得相當順利。鄧小平後來說,天皇就二戰時日本的行為進行了道歉,表示不會讓這樣的事情重演。鄧小平在東京記者俱樂部演講時,現場聽眾的掌聲響亮而經久不息在日本,中國領導人還歷史第一次登上了高速列車。在鄧小平訪日後,日本經濟界的領袖們紛紛協助中國建設起電子、鋼鐵、汽車等工業的現代化工廠。為發展兩國關係,鄧小平將日本的小說、電影和電視劇帶回中國。在鄧小平主政時期,中日之間青年交流項目也得以啟動。

  鄧小平的努力在中日兩國都得到了非常積極的回應。在上世紀80年代,日本提供給中國的經濟援助遠超過其他所有國家給予中國的。日本企業幫助中國建立起現代化的工廠,日本遊客大量湧入中國,遍及日本各地的數百個地方團體與中國的地方團體結成姐妹友好關係。日方民間團體前往中國,就二戰時給中國帶來的苦難表示道歉。進入90年代,中國領導人大力開展愛國主義教育,而在中國,沒有比討論日本在二戰時的暴行更能夠刺激愛國主義情感的了。

  在中國,批評日本沒有詳細記述自己侵略歷史的聲音非常普遍,而且不僅在中國,在西方也有這樣的聲音。很多中國人擔憂,如果日本的年輕一代對日本過去侵略其他國家,給它們帶來苦難的歷史缺乏了解,會導致日本重新走​​上軍國主義之路。當日本青年們訪問中國時,中方東道主看到他們對日本過去製造的災難所知甚少,因而感到不滿。他們質問道:為什麼日本的教科書不向本國年輕人講授這些內容?為什麼日本的紀念館不能多展示一些過去戰爭的恐怖?為什麼日本人要去參拜那些頌揚美化自己戰爭歷史的紀念設施?不僅是中國人,連西方人也有疑問,為什麼日本不能像德國一樣繼續表達自己的懺悔。

  日本人清楚,在二戰結束後,當時蔣介石的國民政府簽署和約,放棄了對日賠款要求。而在上世紀80年代,相比其他國家,日本給予了中國更多的經濟援助。對於很多日本人來說,這是他們反省二戰歷史的一種方式。日本人不滿的是,現在很少有中國人知道日本的領導人和日本民眾在會見中國領導人時曾經道過歉,也很少知道日本在80年代時給予中國的巨大援助。很多日本年輕人則質疑說,為什麼他們要為了自己出生之前就 ​​發生了的事情道歉一些日本歷史學家在研究了有關日方暴行的中方文獻後堅稱,其中很多內容被誇大了。同時,中國卻對本國內戰和“文革”期間對自己人的殘酷行為採取了忽略態度。

  但是事實是,不僅中國人,而且西方人也認為,日本某個派別、個別領導人的道歉不足以體現一直延續下去的反省。為了維持與其他國家的友好關係,對於日本人而言,繼續對過去幾代日本人所製造的問題表示悔恨是明智之舉。

  所有國家的領導人都希望以自己的國家為驕傲。因自己的國家在19世紀現代化步履緩慢而羞恥的中國人,現在有足夠的理由因他們近年來非凡的經濟發展而自豪。因自己的國家在二戰中​​的暴行而羞恥的日本人,現在也可以因自己在戰後對和平的卓越貢獻而自豪——他們為世界各國的和平發展提供了援助,將自己的軍費壓低到國民生產總值的1%,維持小規模的軍事力量,拒絕發展核武器。

  所有國家的領導人都必須對外顯示自己的強力。對於習近平主席和安倍首相來說,他們都很難主動行動以爭取對方的合作。日本領導人堅信,對中國軟弱只會導致中方要求升級並繼續發展軍備,因此,堅決表示日本絕不會被脅迫。

  改善中日關係會非常艱難,但也沒有比現在更好的時候去啟動這一進程。習近平已經鞏固了執政權力基礎,他將在接下來的八年時間裡領導這個國家。安倍也是近年來第一位能夠連續執政至少三年甚至更長時間的日本首相。習近平和安倍都被認為是堅定的民族主義者,有著強大的支持基礎,可以在改善兩國關係方面採取難度更大的舉措。

  作為一個研究了中日兩國半個世紀、在兩國都結交了好朋友的人,我深切地希望這兩個偉大的國家可以和平共處、相互合作。我的建議是,如果兩國領導人希望改善關係,可以考慮以下的做法:

  (一)現在開始行動

  日本應當避免採取在中國看來富有挑釁性的舉動。日本的政治領袖們不應當參拜靖國神社,應當為日本過去侵略所製造的悲劇重申道歉。

  中國不以武力施壓、嘗試控制日本聲稱擁有主權的領土,並重申決心避免國內出現反日遊行。

  中日兩國代表應當尋求一種方案,使得雙方能夠體面地從關於尖閣列島(釣魚島)領土爭端的對峙中後退,並且確認雙方決心在稍後時間以和平的方式解決這些問題。

  中日雙方應當選定一小部分高級別的、在將來數年可能在各自政府扮演重要角色的領導人,這些領導人分別代表自己的國家,經常性地會面,就一系列廣泛議題進行全面的討論,以增強相互理解與合作。日本方面應選派代表主要政黨的領導人,這樣無論任何黨派執政,都可以保證這一聯繫不會中斷。

  (二)在以後幾年裡

  日本領導人應準備一份公開聲明(篇幅大約幾十頁),重點闡述他們戰後以來在和平方面的貢獻日本可以強調,他們放棄了戰爭行動,對發展中國家、聯合國和其他國際組織均提供了援助,將軍費限制在國民生產總值的1%以內,放棄生產核武器並拒絕向海外派遣軍隊參與軍事行動。日本還應當準備一份相似篇幅的聲明,總結日本自明治時代以來對亞洲其他國家產生的影響,包括對二戰時侵略中國台灣、朝鮮以及中國大陸,給當地造成的劫難進行客觀陳述。日本應增加學校關於明治時代以來歷史必修課的課時,為必修課所用的歷史教科書編撰教學指導,使得日本的學生們在了解日本戰前和戰後現代化的成就,以及對亞洲其他國家貢獻的同時,也能夠全面地理解來自亞洲其他國家的批評聲。

  中國應當減少本國電影、書刊和電視節目中會招致對日敵視情緒的文化表演,使民眾更多地了解日本自1978年以來對中國經濟發展提​​供的援助,宣傳日本自1945年以來作出的和平承諾。中國應當回到上世紀80年代鄧小平時代的做法,大規模地將日本文學、電影、電視節目和其他日本文化產品引介到國內。

  中日兩國民眾之間的交流項目應當得到廣泛的擴大。

  盧昊,中國社會科學院日本研究所博士後。

來源: 《日本學刊》 |來源日期:2014年1期|責任編輯:趙敏



Taiwan could serve as a model for China: expert
Staff writer, with CNA

Harvard professor emeritus Ezra Vogel said Taiwan’s democracy was inspiring for China and could serve as a model for China’s democratic development, even though Beijing would not publicly admit it.
Vogel, who is currently in Taipei in conjunction with the release of the Chinese edition of his new book, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, also speculated that if former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) were still alive, he might coin a new term to replace the so-called “one country, two systems” formula that China has hopes to use as a strategy to unify Taiwan with China.
Because most Taiwanese do not accept Beijing’s “one country, two systems” unification overture, Vogel said Deng might have invented a new term to characterize China’s policy toward Taiwan if he were alive.
Vogel said Deng was a pragmatic man who would not mind using another term more appealing to Taiwanese, so long as it would not undermine China’s ultimate goal of taking over Taiwan, Vogel said in a recent interview with Taiwanese media.
Vogel, now in his 80s, spent more than 10 years writing the new biography of Deng since he retired from Harvard in 2000.
The release of the Chinese edition of the book on June 1 by Taipei-based Commonwealth Publishing Group has drawn great interest from local academics studying China’s historical, political and economic development.
Vogel said Deng desired “very much” to unify Taiwan with China during his lifetime. Nevertheless, Vogel said, Deng would not pursue unification in a rash or reckless manner, because he tended to consider issues from a broad perspective.
Vogel said in the interview that even though cross-strait exchanges have focused on economic issues in the past few years, dialogue between Taiwan’s ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party has played an important role in bilateral engagements.
Such a phenomenon indicates that the two sides have maintained a certain degree of political contact, Vogel said.
He said that peace in the Taiwan Strait over the past few years has made him optimistic about the future of cross-strait ties.
Asked about the possible impact of Taiwan’s democratic experience on China’s development, Vogel said more Chinese people should be allowed to visit Taiwan to see for themselves the vitality of its democracy.
Saying that Taiwan’s democracy can serve as a model for China’s democratization, Vogel said it would take time for China to move toward that goal because China was a big country. Any reform or new measure would only be experimented with in certain selected areas at first and the process might take a long time, Vogel added.



Ezra F. Vogel 鄧小平傳“從日本第一Japan As Number One 到中國第一”...
  1. Ezra Vogel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezra_Vogel - 頁庫存檔 - 翻譯這個網頁
    The Japanese edition of his book Japan as Number One: Lessons for America (1979) is the all-time best-seller in Japan of non-fiction by a Western author. ...

China's President Lashes Out at Western Culture
New York Times
BEIJING — President Hu Jintao has said China must strengthen its cultural production to defend against the West's assault on the country's culture and ideology, according to an essay in a Communist Party policy magazine published this week. ...
與西方價值為敵 可以天下第一嗎
***
從日本第一到中國第一的旁觀
1980年代初 傅高義的Japan as number one 登場 轟動一時
廣東經濟革命時  中國的資本主義化已"勢之所趨"  它的總代價可能只能說七三分嗎
然而 真正的國家實力是什麼呢

  1. Amazon.com: Japan As Number One: Lessons for America ...

    www.amazon.com › ... › Economics - 頁庫存檔 - 翻譯這個網頁
    Ezra F. Vogel is Henry Ford II Research Professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition ...
  2. Japan as number one: Land of the setting sun | The Economist

    www.economist.com/node/14861545 - 頁庫存檔 - 翻譯這個網頁
    Japan as number one. Land of the setting sun. Japan's economy was on course to surpass America's. What happened? Nov 12th 2009 | tokyo | from the print ...

彭定康評《鄧小平傳》Deng and the Transformation of China作者:前香港總督彭定康為英國《金融時報》撰稿
When Chinese historians are able one day to ply their subversive trade without control or censorship, their judgment will surely be that their country should revere Deng Xiaoping way above his predecessor ​​Mao Zedong. Mao led the Communist party to victory over the Kuomintang and the Japanese, and united China in the 1950s. He then plunged his country into the famine and bloody mayhem of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Deng carefully put the pieces of the smashed nation back together again and launched China on its recovery to become assuredly once again the world's largest economy.
如果中國的歷史學者在從事他們具有顛覆性的職業時,能有朝一日不受控制和審查, 他們一定會有這樣的評價:中國人對於鄧小平的崇敬,應遠遠超過毛澤東。毛澤東曾領導中國共產黨打敗日軍和國民黨,並在20世紀50年代統一中國,但他隨後又使國家陷入了大躍進造成的飢荒和文化大革命的混亂。而鄧小平則小心翼翼地重整破碎的山河,使中國充滿信心, 推向了再度成為世界最大經濟體的複興之路。Ezra Vogel's massive biography assembles the case for Deng (1904-97) with narrative skill and prodigious scholarship. Vogel, for many years a Harvard professor, published the bestselling Japan as Number One in 1979. His principal academic interest then turned to China and he spent some time in the late 1980s studying economic reform in Guangdong. The sources and acknowledgements he cites in this book indicate the breadth of his contacts and study, though when required to stray outside the world of conventional western Sinology he is less sure-footed. His knowledge of British and Hong Kong politics, for example, is pretty sketchy.
傅高義(Ezra Vogel)這部厚重的傳記, 寫得很有敘事技巧, 富有高超學術水準,闡明了應當對鄧小平更崇敬(1904年-1997年)的理由。傅高義在哈佛大學任教多年,曾在1979年出版暢銷書《日本第一》 (Japan as Number One),之後他的主要研究興趣轉向中國,並在20世紀80年代花時間研究廣東的經濟改革。書中引述的資料來源和鳴謝對象,都顯示出他交友廣泛、學識淵博。儘管在超出西方漢學的常規領域時,其論述或可商榷。例如,他對英國和香港政治的了解就頗為欠缺。The book is not hagiographical but it does occasionally read a little like the Deng family's authorised biography. Warts are mentioned from time to time but the overall picture presented usually discounts the blemishes. While we learn once again that Deng's time as a young emigrant worker in France in the 1920s left him with a lifetime love of croissants, his later military exploits in the civil war are dealt with pretty summarily. Moreover, Deng's rule in the south-west of China, including his native Sichuan from 1949-52, gets just a page and a half. It was sufficiently brutal to earn Mao's approval. Larger landlords were attacked and killed. One day we will presumably learn more about Deng's methods at this time; they were plainly not for the squeamish.
本書並非充滿溢美之詞,但某些段落讀來確有幾分像是鄧家授權的傳記。書中或會提及鄧的缺點,但給出的總體評價中,展示其瑕疵時卻是手下留情。雖然我們再次得知,20世紀20年代鄧小平少年時在法國務工的經歷,使他終生都愛吃法式羊角麵包,然而對於他後來在內戰中的軍事成就,描述卻十分簡明扼要。更有甚者,對鄧小平1949年至1952年間在中國西南部(包括他的故鄉四川省)的治理,僅一頁半的篇幅輕輕帶過。而鄧小平那段時間的作為足稱殘暴,並贏得毛澤東的賞識,大地主遭攻擊和殺害。有一天我們一定能對鄧小平當時採取的手段了解更多,那絕對不是神經脆弱者能夠承受的。Deng's role as Mao's enforcer during the “anti-rightist campaign” of the 1950s is hardly mentioned. Half a million intellectuals were shipped to labour camps. His careful avoidance of personal trouble during the disastrous Great Leap Forward of 1958-61, which led to 45m or more deaths (he broke a leg playing billiards and used a sick note as an excuse for missing difficult me​​etings) was not heroic. Almost 10m of his fellow Sichuanese starved to death.
在20世紀50年代的“反右運動”中,該書對鄧小平充當毛澤東執行者的歷史幾乎沒有談及。那段時間有近50萬名知識分子被送去勞改。 1958至1961年的大躍進造成了災難性後果,導致4500萬甚至更多人死亡(他在打台球時弄傷了腿,用病假做藉口缺席那些麻煩的會議),鄧小平在這個時期小心翼翼避免個人麻煩的做法稱不上英雄所為。當時幾乎有1000萬四川人餓死。But it is Deng's muddled view of the relationship between economic progress and political freedom that will always attract the most criticism. In his policy battles with the economic hardliner Chen Yun in the 1980s, he was always in the camp that contested the argument that if the party gave up control over the economy it would sooner or later lose control of the state. For Deng and his circle, stepping back from command economics was essential for growth and job creation, and without them the Communist party would certainly lose control of the state . Both propositions are probably true and China's main existential challenge remains the issue of resolving this dilemma.
不過, 鄧小平招致最多批評的,還是他對經濟發展和政治自由兩者關係的糊塗看法。在20世紀80年代,與經濟強硬派陳雲的政策紛爭中,他一直反對如果黨放棄經濟控制權,遲早會失去國家控制權的觀點。對於鄧小平和他圈子裡的人,放鬆經濟控制權對促進經濟增長和創造就業至關重要,而如果不能實現經濟增長並解決就業,共產黨肯定會失去對國家的控制。這兩種說法可能都是成立的,中國主要的生存挑戰至今仍然是如何解決這個兩難局面。The problem was bloodily resolved in 1989 in and around Tiananmen Square, “a tragedy of enormous proportions”, in Vogel's words. It is, maybe, unfair but inevitable that Deng's life will be viewed by many through the prism of this catastrophe. Those of us who were in Beijing just before the crackdown should not have been carried away by the epic romance of what was happening in the streets. We should have listened more carefully to the seasoned hacks who told us it would all end in tears and that Deng's whole career showed that he would never accept such a challenge to the authority of the Communist party.
這個問題曾在1989年,在天安門廣場周圍,以血腥的方式得到了解決。用傅高義的話說,那是“一場異常巨大的悲劇”。許多人看待鄧小平生平時,都是通過這起災禍的棱鏡,這或許不公平,但不可避免。我們當中,在鎮壓前剛好身處北京的那些人,不可能不對北京街頭髮生的史詩般的浪漫運動嘆為觀止。一些熟稔政局者,曾經對我們說過,這一切都會以眼淚告終,鄧小平的畢生經歷都顯示出,他永遠不會接受共產黨的權威受到挑戰。我們本應更關切地傾聽他們的意見。One unnamed provincial first party secretary is quoted, by Vogel, as saying that Deng's view of democracy was like Lord Ye's view of dragons. “Lord Ye loved looking at a book with pretty pictures of dragons but when a rea​​l dragon appeared, he was terrified .” This well-known story about a mythical figure from China's distant past is customarily told to draw attention to the inconsistency between words and actions.
傅高義在書中寫道,一位不願透露姓名的省委書記說,鄧小平看待民主,就像葉公好龍——葉公子高好龍,於是夫龍聞而下之。葉公見之,棄而還走,失其魂魄,五色無主。 “葉公好龍”這則廣為人知的故事,習慣上用來比喻言行不一。Vogel chronicles very well Deng's role in stabilising China after the chaos of the Cultural Revolution (1966-76), in which he and his family had themselves suffered, literally getting the trains running again, making people work together without reprisals, and re-establishing schools and universities. His initial success in preventing China capsizing led to his second ousting by Mao in 1976. The paranoid Mao was suspicious that the younger man would not support unequivocally the case for the Cultural Revolution, was jealous of his growing popularity and feared that he might, on Mao's own death, become the Khrushchev to his Stalin, denouncing the departed tyrant.
傅高義對經歷文化大革命(1966年-1976年)混亂之後鄧小平穩定中國的角色闡述得當,鄧小平和他家人在文革中也承受了苦難。實際上是鄧小平讓火車又開動起來,讓人們沒有互相報復就重新開始工作,還恢復大中小學教育。他開始成功地讓中國免於傾覆,而這個成功又令他在1976年第二次被毛澤東打倒。偏執多疑的毛澤東懷疑比他年輕的鄧小平並不會堅定地擁護文化大革命,嫉妒鄧越來越強的聲望,恐懼鄧會在毛本人去世後像赫魯曉夫對待斯大林那樣,譴責已故的獨裁者。When Hua Guofeng succeeded Mao later that year, he was soon persuaded to reinstate Deng, China's best pragmatic manager. But Hua, who had shown great resolve in arresting Mao's widow and the other members of the Gang of Four, proved no match politically for his wily rival. Deng's sidelining and despatch of Hua is a masterclass in ruthless, though not vindictive, politics. Hua was stripped of authority, humiliated but not imprisoned.
華國鋒在1976年晚些時候繼承毛澤東的權力後,很快就被人說服重新啟用鄧小平這個中國最好的務實派。儘管華國鋒逮捕了毛澤東的遺孀和“四人幫”的另外三個成員,表現出極大的決斷力,但他在政治上卻無法與精明的對手相抗衡。鄧小平排擠和打發了華國鋒,顯示出大師級的冷酷政治手腕。華國鋒被剝奪了權力,遭到羞辱,不過並沒有入獄。Intellectually, it was Deng's bold pragmatism, learning truth from facts, that triumphed over what was ridiculed as the “whateveritis” of Hua – whatever Mao had said or done must be the correct way to act. This approach led to the opening of China to the world, the reform of agriculture and industrial management and the years of stupendous growth. In 1978, the year that really saw the beginnings of change, China exported about as much in 12 months as it now exports in a day.
就思想而言,鄧小平果敢的務實主義,“實踐檢驗真理”,戰勝了華國鋒被戲稱為“兩個凡是”的理論——凡是毛澤東說過的和做過的,就一定是正確的。這條路線使中國向世界開放,引發了農業和工業管理的改革,促成了許多年令人驚嘆的經濟增長。今天, 中國一天的出口額,幾乎相當於改革真正開始的1978年12個月的出口總額。The first experiments were in Fujian and Guangdong, where the father of the man tipped to be China's next leader, Xi Jinping, was provinicial party secretary. Vogel has written before about the economic adjustments and rural reforms in China under Deng, starting with the creation of a Special Economic Zone around the hitherto sleepy fishing village of Shenzhen, just across the border from Hong Kong. Foreign investment was welcomed and foreign technology was brought in, copied and, of course, stolen. The commands of a controlled economy were partly replaced by markets and profits. Vogel tells this story authoritatively, culminating in Deng's journey to the south in 1992 to give heart to the reformers and embolden his successor, Jiang Zemin.
鄧最初的實驗是在福建和廣東進行的,很有可能成為中國下一屆領導人的習近平的父親,曾在廣東擔任省委書記。傅高義以前就曾撰文講述過鄧小平時代中國的經濟調整和農村改革,其開端就是在與香港一河之隔,以前一直沉睡的漁村深圳周圍,建設一個經濟特區。那裡歡迎外資,吸引並模仿境外技術,當然也有盜版。對經濟的指令式控制,在那裡部分為市場和利潤追求所取代。傅高義對這段故事的描寫十分權威,高潮是1992年鄧小平的南巡,讓改革者吃了定心丸,也給他的繼任者江澤民極大的鼓勵。Deng was never an ideologue and, as Vogel argues, it would be unfair to criticise him for failure to set out an overarching philosophy for what he was doing. Sometimes economic activity simply took off once central control was relaxed. Deng himself celebrated the spontaneous emergence of township and village enterprises.
鄧小平從來都不是一個意識形態理論家,正如傅高義所說,批評他未能對自己所做的事業提出一個概括性的哲學理論是不公平的。有時候,只要集中控制一放鬆,經濟活動就會很容易發展起來。鄧小平本人就曾稱讚過鄉鎮企業的自發湧現。How should we describe what has happened? It does not seem to have much to do with socialism, given for example that in the decade of fast growth after 1997, workers' wages as a proportion of gross domestic product fell from 53 per cent to 40 per cent. Whatever the correct economic nomenclature, authoritarian party control was never abandoned. Perhaps it is best described as “market Leninism”.
我們應當怎樣描述發生的這些事件?它們似乎與社會主義並沒有太大關係,例如,在1997年後中國經濟的十年高速增長中,工人工資佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例從53%下降到40%。無論在經濟學上該如何正確地命名,威權主義的一黨專制從未遭到摒棄。或許最恰當的描述應該是“市場列寧主義”。Describing Deng's art of governing, Vogel sets out a list of the principles that underpinned his rule. Several would have been embraced by other leaders, including his rut​​hless sacrifice of pawns to preserve the position of the king and his throne. First, he cut down the political reformer and party general secretary Hu Yaobang in 1987 for being too soft in dealing with student protests; then he destroyed Zhao Ziyang during the Tiananmen demonstration in 1989. Deng believed above all in preserving his own authority and that of the party. Whether that was essential to transform China will remain the subject of increasingly open debate. Whatever the answer, Vogel makes a strong case for according Deng the prize for lifting more people out of poverty than anyone else in history.
闡述鄧小平的治國藝術時,傅高義列出了支撐鄧的統治的一系列原則。其中有若干條別的政治領袖也會採納,包括為了保護王者的地位和自己的權柄無情地捨棄下屬。鄧小平先是因為黨的總書記胡耀邦對待學生示威過於溫和,而在1987年罷免了這位政治改革者,後來又在1989年天安門抗議事件中解決了趙紫陽。鄧小平的首要信條是保護自己的權威和黨的權威。至於這對於中國的轉變是不是至關重要,仍然會是辯論的主題,而辯論也會越來越開放。無論答案如何,傅高義有力地闡述了這樣一個觀點:因鄧小平而得以脫離貧困的人數,比歷史上任何人都要多,為此他應該得到嘉許。Lord Patten, chairman of the BBC Trust and chancellor of the University of Oxford, was the last governor of Hong Kong
作者彭定康勳爵(Lord Patten)是BBC委員會主席,牛津大學(University of Oxford)校監,香港最後一任總督。
譯者/何黎

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傅高義:鄧小平想見蔣經國遭拒 【2012/6/15 21:25】

〔中央社〕哈佛榮譽教授傅高義(Ezra F. Vogel)今天表示,當年中共領導人鄧小平曾透過前新加坡總理李光耀詢問前總統蔣經國是否願意與他會面,蔣經國以不相信共產黨為由拒絕。

來自美國,傅高義精通中、日文,現年84歲的他在哈佛任教超過30年,曾任費正清東亞研究中心主任。在2000年退休後,他花了10年時間訪問了包括前美 國總統卡特、前美國國務卿季辛吉、前新加坡總理李光耀、前中國大陸國家主席江澤民、六四民運領袖王丹等全球政壇重要人士,完成「鄧小平改變中國」一書。

書中,傅高義針對毛澤東與鄧小平間的微妙關係、六四天安門事件、中美台外交關係內幕、台港及西藏問題以及具中國特色的市場經濟等主題詳盡評析。

今天他應邀來台演講時表示,訪問上百名官員寫下這本書,主要目的是要讓西方人多了解中國的改變。他說,鄧小平是中國大陸現代化的關鍵決策者,他透過訪談記錄鄧小平的生涯起伏,進而描繪出中國大陸的近現代史。

演講結束後,有讀者問到鄧小平與蔣經國曾經一起留學蘇聯,這兩名領導人誰的影響較大?對此,傅高義表示,鄧小平改變了中國大陸,對世界的影響超過蔣經國,還透露當年鄧小平曾透過李光耀詢問蔣經國是否願意與他會面,蔣經國以不相信共產黨為由拒絕。

另外,也有讀者詢問傅高義,如果鄧小平仍在世是否會對台灣推行「一國兩制」。傅高義認為,鄧小平會了解台灣人不想走香港的路,不會堅持採用「一國兩制」,而改採其他作法。
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