2017年5月8日 星期一

馬克宏/馬克龍 當選法國總統的五大原因 (BBC) ;唱衰他: Emmanuel Macron triggered a French political earthquake. The first genuinely good day for the eurozone

Via WSJ Opinion: The new French president isn’t the new Barack Obama. He’s the new Tony Blair. Like Mr. Blair, Emmanuel Macron promises a novel combination of market economics and progressive values. And like Mr. Blair, he is startlingly vague about how it will actually work, writes Robert Colville.

British voters know what happens when electability trumps ideology.
WSJ.COM


仏大統領選で勝利したエマニュエル・マクロン氏。39歳での当選は、1958年以来の「第5共和制」体制下で最年少です。投資銀行時代には「金融のモーツァルト」と呼ばれたことも。どんな経歴なのでしょうか?


移民を包容する多様な社会を目指すのか、国を閉じてグローバリズムの波から国民を守るのか。激しい言葉が飛び交った選挙戦をエマニュエル・マク…
ASAHI.COM


Bureau Français de Taipei - 法國在台協會
法國選出了新總統 : 埃瑪紐耶爾•馬克宏 (M. Emmanuel Macron)!
La France a élu un nouveau président : M. Emmanuel Macron ! (en français sous le chinois)
5月7日, 法國人民選出了馬克宏先生為法蘭西共和國的總統。昨夜, 在獲勝大選的時刻, 他強調歐洲與世界都對法國抱持期待, 希望她能在每個角落捍衛啟蒙與自由的精神。他誓言要努力促進一個更穩定的世界、一個自由與成長的世界、一個讓正義落實、生態永續的世界。他也再次明言他對維繫歐洲所做的承諾。現年39歲的他, 是法國史上最年輕的總統。他將在5月14日正式就職, 接替卸任的法蘭索瓦•歐隆德 (François Hollande) 先生。
Le 7 mai, les Français ont élu M. Emmanuel Macron, Président de la République française. Au soir de son élection, il a souligné que l’Europe et le monde attendaient de la France qu’elle défende partout l’esprit des lumières et les libertés. Il a appelé de ses vœux un monde plus sûr, un monde de liberté, de croissance, un monde avec davantage de justice et d’écologie. Il a également réaffirmé son engagement en faveur de l’Europe. A 39 ans, c’est le plus jeune Président de l’histoire de la France. II succédera officiellement à M. François Hollande le 14 mai.







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'This has been the first genuinely good day for the eurozone since the outbreak of the financial crisis in late 2009.'
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法新社報導,布莉姬特去年曾接受《巴黎競賽》雜誌(Paris Match)訪問時說:「每天晚上我們會一起聽取報告,也會互相聽取我們聽見的事」、「我必須注意所有事,盡最大努力保護他。」 一度被看好的前總統候選人費雍(FrancoisFillon)因他讓妻子擔任國會顧問「假工作領乾薪」的指控而一蹶不振,有了前車之鑑,馬克宏承諾給他妻子1名職員、有預算和職責,但不會支薪。 在競選期間,馬克宏宣布他想要定義第一夫人的位置,並確實納入法規。 法國新任總統馬克宏與妻子布莉姬特。(AP) 「她將有個位子,她會有自己的聲音、對事情的看法,她會在我左右,她過去一直是如此,而她也將在公共事務上扮演1個角色。」 馬克宏2週前從大選首輪脫穎而出後,發表勝選演說時就在熱烈掌聲中帶妻子上台,並且感謝她,「布莉姬特,她永遠在這,今後會更常如此,沒有她就沒有現在的我。」




Emmanuel Macron has triggered a French political earthquake.

因為幸運

無庸置疑地,馬克龍的勝選有部分原因是因為運氣好。
中間偏右陣營本來勝算甚高,候選人弗朗索瓦·菲永(François Fillon)氣勢如虹。但其後菲永醜聞纏身而未能在第一輪投票中勝出。
A year ago, he was a member of the government of one of the most unpopular French presidents in history.
Now, at 39, he has won France's presidential election, defeating first the mainstream centre left and centre right and now the far right as well.

而現任總統奧朗德的社會黨今次派出的候選人貝諾瓦·阿蒙(Benoît Hamon)不但民調低,黨內的聲音也分歧。
「馬克龍非常幸運,他面臨的事前完全沒料到的狀況。」巴黎Terra Nova智庫研究員馬克-奧利維爾·帕迪(Marc-Olivier Padis)表示。

因為判斷力佳

但是只憑幸運並不能讓馬克龍勝選成為法國總統。
馬克龍原本有希望代表社會黨競選,但他發現社會黨執政多年之下民意慘澹,黨的聲音很難被社會認同。
「他能在別人還沒看到機會時就掌握先機,」馬克-奧利維爾·帕迪表示。
他選擇投身歐洲大陸其他地方興起的政治運動──例如西班牙新興左派政黨我們可以」(Podemos)、義大利「五星運動」。他看到法國並沒有如西班牙、義大利等能夠造成傳統政治版圖改變的政治勢力。
所以在2016年4月,他成立名為「前進!」(En Marche!)的政黨,四個月後他辭去奧朗德政府中的職位。

因為創新

駐巴黎獨立記者艾蜜莉‧舒賽(Emily Schultheis)分析,馬克龍成立前進黨後,參考美國總統奧巴馬2008年競選時發起的草根運動。
他的第一個大型運動是「大遊行」(Grande Marche),發動沒有政治經驗的民眾參與活動。
這場運動與曾經協助奧巴馬競選的政治公司合作,利用演算法,找出最能代表法國整體的地區,接著派出志願者挨家挨戶訪問30萬家戶,艾蜜莉‧舒賽解說「大遊行」的背景。
志願者不僅僅發放傳單,他們選了全國選民進行總共2萬5千場15分鐘的深度訪談。這些資料被匯整成一個大型資料庫,為馬克龍的選舉和政策制定提供材料。
「這個大型焦點團體讓馬克龍可以試探政治水溫、讓民眾提前認識他,也讓他的志願者學習如何進行家戶訪談。這為他的總統大選選戰打下基礎。」艾蜜莉‧舒賽表示。
選舉結果證明,他的一套策略是有效的。

因為形像正面

馬克龍的政治性格看似矛盾。
這名「政治新星」曾是左派總統奧朗德的門生,在他們的政府中擔任經濟部長。他投身政治草根運動前是投資銀行家,也是提出激進主張的中間主義者。
對他的對手勒龐來說,這些都成為攻擊的箭靶。勒龐陣營稱他是菁英群體的候選人,而不是如他所宣稱的代表新世代。
但他拒絶被稱為「奧朗德第二」,他創造出新的形像讓對現狀絶望的法國人感到耳目一新。
「法國現在普遍有一種悲觀情緒,可以說是過度悲觀。然後馬克龍帶來一種樂觀的、正面的訊息。」馬克-奧利維爾·帕迪說。
「他很年輕、充滿活力,他不是解釋他會為法國做什麼,而是對人民解釋他們能得到什麼機會,他是唯一傳達這種訊息的候選人。」
因為對勒龐
和馬克龍傳達的正面訊息恰恰相反──他的對手勒龐傳達出反移民、反歐盟、反體制的負面訊息。
馬克龍的競選活動大多播放流行音樂、氣氛熱鬧,而勒龐的場子常充滿抗議群眾、瓶罐與火炬、大批警力駐守,而且有種憤怒的情緒在其中流動。
5月3日進行的大型電視辯論是一場憤怒的集會,雙方都使用侮辱性的言詞攻擊對方。
勒龐說馬克龍是「野蠻全球化的代表」,願意出賣法國的資產及主權。
馬克龍則指勒龐是「恐懼的女祭師」,指她大放厥詞,但沒有實質政策。
她的極右派主張可能使法國更加分裂動蕩,而法國民眾認為,馬克龍是唯一能阻止勒龐的人。

He got lucky

No doubt about it, Mr Macron was carried to victory in part by the winds of fortune.
A public scandal knocked out the initial frontrunner, centre-right candidate François Fillon; and Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon, already on the left fringe of the party, suffered a very public drubbing as traditional voters looked elsewhere.

"He was very lucky, because he was facing a situation that was completely unexpected," says Marc-Olivier Padis, of Paris-based think tank Terra Nova.

He was canny

Luck doesn't tell the whole story.
Mr Macron could have gone for the Socialist ticket, but he realised after years in power and dismal public approval ratings the party's voice would always struggle to be heard.
"He was able to foresee there was an opportunity when nobody could," says Mr Padis.
Instead, he looked at political movements that have sprung up elsewhere in Europe - Podemos in Spain, Italy's Five-Star Movement - and saw that there was no equivalent game-changing political force in France.
In April 2016, he established his "people-powered" En Marche! (On the move) movement and four months later he stood down from President François Hollande's government.

He tried something new in France

Having established En Marche, he took his cue from Barack Obama's grassroots 2008 US election campaign, says Paris-based freelance journalist Emily Schultheis.
His first major undertaking was the Grande Marche (Big March), when he mobilised his growing ranks of energised but inexperienced En Marche activists.
"The campaign used algorithms from a political firm they worked with - who by the way had volunteered for the Obama campaign in 2008 - to identify districts and neighbourhoods that were most representative of France as a whole," Ms Schultheis says.
"They sent out people to knock on 300,000 doors."
The volunteers didn't just hand out flyers - they carried out 25,000 in-depth interviews of about 15 minutes with voters across the country. That information was entered into a large database which helped inform campaign priorities and policies.
"It was a massive focus group for Macron in gauging the temperature of the country but also made sure that people had contact with his movement early on, making sure that volunteers knew how to go door to door. It was a training exercise that really laid the groundwork for what he did this year," Ms Schultheis explains.
And he capitalised on it.

He had a positive message

Mr Macron's political persona appears beset with contradictions.
The "newcomer" who was President Hollande's protege and then economy minister; the ex-investment banker running a grassroots movement; the centrist with a radical programme to slash the public sector.

It was perfect ammunition for run-off rival Marine Le Pen, who said he was the candidate of the elite, not the novice he said he was.
But he dodged attempts to label him as another François Hollande, creating a profile that resonated among people desperate for something new.
"There is a very prevalent pessimistic mood in France - in a way, too pessimistic - and he comes with a very optimistic, positive message," says Marc-Olivier Padis.
"He's young, full of energy, and he's not explaining what he'll do for France but how people will get opportunities. He's the only one to have this kind of message."

He was up against Marine Le Pen

Up against his more optimistic tone, Marine Le Pen's message came across as negative - anti-immigration, anti-EU, anti-system.
Macron campaign rallies featured brightly lit arenas blaring with pop music, says Emily Schultheis, while Marine Le Pen's mass meetings involved protesters throwing bottles and flares, a heavy police presence, dark audience stands and an "angrier" undercurrent.
The big TV debate on 3 May was an angry affair, with a string of insults hurled by both sides.
She was a "grand priestess of fear", a snake-oil merchant from the same extremist background as her father. He was a Socialist puppet, a dangerous tool of global finance who would do whatever Germany's Angela Merkel asked.
But many were alarmed by the prospect of a potentially destabilising and divisive far-right presidency and saw him as the last obstacle in her way.
Marine Le Pen may have run a highly effective campaign, but her poll ratings have been on the slide for months. She was ahead in the polls last year, nudging 30%, and yet in just two weeks she has been beaten twice by Emmanuel Macron.
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