2015年5月11日 星期一

Joko Widodo (佐科威多多)、困境; Wins Indonesia Presidential Election 貧民窟里走出的印尼總統




Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s president, promises growth of 7% a year by 2018. Yet for all his fine aspirations, the country underwhelms. The economy is stumbling, growing by 4.7% in the first quarter compared with a year ago. Rather than an agent of change, he is sounding more like his tub-thumping predecessors. For the sake of 250m Indonesians, he needs to change his tune, and fasthttp://econ.st/1PrKIuL
HE SAYS it himself: expectations have been high since he became president in October, after a gripping election showed how Indonesia’s democratic politics are...
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News for INDONESIA ELECTED PRESIDENT


A new kind of president

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Joko Widodo Wins Indonesia Presidential Election


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Barack Obama signed his health-care programme into law 427 days after taking office. Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s president, took just two weeks to begin honouring his health-care and education promises. By cutting fuel subsidies, he has also begun giving an income top-up to the poorest third of Indonesia’s population that will lift millions above the poverty line, as well as extending public healthcare and educationhttp://econ.st/14VAsKY



BARACK OBAMA signed his health-care programme into law 427 days after taking office. Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s president, took just two weeks to begin honouring his...
ECON.ST



Joko Widodo Wins Indonesia Presidential Election

Widodo Victory Comes After Subianto Withdraws From Race

Updated July 22, 2014 12:26 p.m. ET



Joko Widodo savors his presidential election victory Tuesday in Jakarta. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
JAKARTA, Indonesia—Jakarta Gov. Joko Widodo was declared the winner ofIndonesia's presidential election, ending weeks of uncertainty in the wake of a hard-fought contest in the Southeast Asian nation.
The national elections commission said Tuesday after days of collating more than 133 million ballots from across the sprawling archipelago that Mr. Widodo edged outformer army Gen. Prabowo Subianto with 53.15% of the vote—a margin of about 8.4 million votes. Voter turnout was almost 70% for the July 9 election.
Mr. Widodo, a former furniture exporter and mayor who arrived on the national scene by staging a surprise win in the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2012, will take the helm of the nation of 250 million people in October, when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono steps down after serving a maximum 10 years. The exchange of power will be the country's first between directly elected presidents, as Mr. Widodo becomes the nation's fifth president in a democratic era that began with the downfall of longtime authoritarian ruler Suharto 16 years ago.
Mr. Widodo will inherit a regional powerhouse whose $900 billion economy has sputtered lately amid declining prices for its mineral and commodity exports. He will face an early challenge of reining in ballooning fuel subsidies that have stifled spending on infrastructure that is sorely needed to boost the country's productivity—and doing it with a heavily splintered parliament with a history of gridlock.

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The announcement from the elections commission came shortly before 9 p.m., several hours after officials and hundreds of observers and journalists paused to break the fast, a daily event during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Tens of thousands of police were deployed at the election commission headquarters and across the megacity to safeguard the count.
Mr. Widodo arrived partway through the announcement wearing a traditional batik shirt alongside his running mate, the former Vice President Jusuf Kalla. Mr. Widodo bore a slight smile but made no public address after the commission read out the tallies and declared him the winner.
He then gave a late-night victory speech at Sunda Kelapa, a port for traditional sailing vessels near the city's early colonial-era Dutch administrative center, when the city was a center of the lucrative spice trade.
In a speech from the deck of a traditional cargo vessel, Mr. Widodo urged Indonesians to quickly move past their most divisive presidential campaign since the world's largest Muslim-majority country became an anchor of stability in Southeast Asia roughly a decade ago.
"The election has led to a new optimism for the country," Mr. Widodo said. "The heart of freedom and political responsibility is blooming with the new generation….That spirit of mutual cooperation will allow the Indonesian people to survive not only in the face of challenges, but also to develop into one of the great civilizations of the future."
Earlier in the day, Mr. Subianto withdrew his team from the vote-counting process, saying in a news conference that he rejected the vote and viewed the election process as "riddled with problems" and "undemocratic."
Arief Budiman, a commissioner of the elections body, said the walkout was Mr. Subianto's right. "Everyone is entitled to their stance and opinions, and we respect that," he said.
The withdrawal, hours before the official results were announced, "means [Mr. Subianto] conceded through an alternative way," said Indria Samego, political analyst with the state-run Indonesian Institute of Science, a research organization.
Mr. Subianto, a former general from the Suharto era, gave assurances that he wouldn't resort to force to challenge the vote. The stock market's main index fell almost 2.2% after he spoke but later pared its losses, closing down 0.9%. The rupiah dropped almost 0.9% against the dollar before partly recovering in late Asian trade.
Mr. Subianto's "withdrawal stunt caught the market by surprise and hence the initial rather negative reaction," said Wellian Wiranto, economist at OCBC. But "the market is willing to give the situation the benefit of the doubt that all will proceed smoothly in the end, [although] such goodwill might come under fairly strenuous tests in the coming days."
Indonesian presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto, left, and Joko Widodo attend a breaking-fast ceremony with outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (not pictured) Sunday at the presidential palace in Jakarta.Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Mr. Subianto could still mount a legal challenge to the vote until Friday. In recent days he said he would file a case at the Constitutional Court, the country's highest legal body when it comes to elections disputes, which would prolong uncertainty until mid-August. But members of his campaign team suggested Tuesday that he no longer intended to file such a case.
Mr. Subianto's coalition of political parties had frayed in recent days, political observers and coalition members said. One high-ranking coalition member said the parties had split in recent days after data revealed the team had lost the election by too great a margin to challenge.
The election was the most sophisticated and contentious in Indonesian history, featuring smear campaigns, hundreds of thousands of volunteers, intensive media coverage and, for the first time, regular debates that drew huge viewership in the main islands of Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi and beyond.
The stark contrasts in personalities between the two men fueled polarizing discourse especially in Jakarta, the capital of 10 million people.
Mr. Widodo, a product of democratic reforms that allowed him to run for mayor in his hometown of Solo a decade ago, cast himself as an ordinary man of the people with a knack for pushing small but steady improvements in government services. Mr. Subianto, once Mr. Suharto's son-in-law, appealed to Indonesians longing for strong leadership, saying he would seek to strengthen the presidency and reconsider some reforms of the post-Suharto era.
But both the election and the intricate vote-counting process across the country was a peaceful affair.
"In all the elections I've seen in Indonesia, this is probably the best run,'' said Paul Rowland, a longtime Jakarta-based political analyst.
—Linda Silaen, Sara Schonhardt and Andreas Ismar contributed to this article.

司馬觀點:貧民出身的總統(江春男)




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出身貧困不代表廉潔,但是奮鬥的故事總是會打動人心,讓無助的人彷彿看到了希望,感到莫名振奮。印尼民主轉型十五年,終於產生一位既非將軍又無權貴背景的新總統,讓人刮目相看。

打破傳統政客形象

貧民出身的佐科威,身材高瘦,長得鄉村臉,十分平民化,天天拜訪巿場到處走動,很少坐在辦公室,與傳統政客作風不同,在雅加達省長任內快速躍升。和許多國家的首都巿長一樣,享有全國聲望,他以53%打敗對手普拉博沃,並不出意料。
意外的是他的對手是獨裁者女婿,曾擔任特種部隊司令,官拜中將,因涉及迫害人權案件,被美國列入不受歡迎名單,這次也得到46%選票。更意外的是他懷疑這次選舉對他不公平,有系統性和結構性的舞弊行為。
印尼政治充滿爪哇特色,講話繞圈子,有話從不直說。蘇哈托獨裁三十年,鎮壓異己面不改色,但講話輕聲細語,面上永遠微笑著。現任總統尤多約諾是著名將軍,但身段柔軟,在競選台上向選民唱情歌。
印尼有兩億五千萬人,大小島嶼一萬七千座,礦產豐富,經濟成長穩定,外資洶湧而來,經濟前景一片大好,但是基本建設落後,上千萬人口的雅加達竟然沒有地下鐵。印尼式的貪腐,聞名國際,近年稍有改善,但如何解決貪腐和增加行政效率,仍是新政府最大挑戰。 

獨立機構揪出貪官

幸運的是,印尼走上憲政民主的道路,沒有政黨獨大,沒有軍事獨裁,獨立的反貪機構發揮不少作用,四大政黨要角都有人被判刑。獨立媒體公布調查報導,把貪污的議員和官員的照片公布出來。
印尼的公民團體很活躍,司法,反對黨和媒體,在民主轉型過程中扮演重要角色,政治一旦走上軌道之後,漸漸有區域大國的氣勢。

*****


貧民窟里走出的印尼總統

本周二的消息宣布,佐科·威多多在印尼總統大選中勝出。圖為上周五他在雅加達。
Kemal Jufri for The New York Times
本周二的消息宣布,佐科·威多多在印尼總統大選中勝出。圖為上周五他在雅加達。
印尼雅加達——雅加達省長佐科·威多多(Joko Widodo)平易近人的作風,讓他在政界平步青雲。本周二,印尼總統選舉委員會宣布他贏得了大選,佐科也由此完成了一個奇蹟般的蛻變:從一個來自貧民窟的孩子,成為了全球第四人口大國的領導者。
雖然這則消息符合人們的普遍預期,但它並沒有就此結束一個正在發酵的爭議。佐科的競爭對手、退役將軍普拉博沃·蘇比亞恩托(Prabowo Subianto)拒絕承認選舉結果,宣稱選舉過程中存在舞弊行為,並表示他將退出競選。
  • 檢視大圖本周二,雅加達,佐科的支持者們剃光頭以慶祝他的勝利。
    Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images
    本周二,雅加達,佐科的支持者們剃光頭以慶祝他的勝利。
總選舉委員會宣布,佐科的得票率為53%,擊敗了得票率為47%的普拉博沃。在7月9日那場牽動公眾情緒的選舉中,近1.35億印尼人投出選票,這是選民們十年來首次有機會選舉一位新的總統。
本周二完成計票的時候,印尼首都雅加達在該委員會的辦公室周圍部署了大量警力,因為有傳聞說,普拉博沃的支持者們在失望之餘,將上街進行暴力示威。
選舉委員會的計票工作臨近尾聲,準備宣布佐科勝出的時候,普拉博沃的競選團隊成員在該委員會的辦公室上演了一出退席活動。緊接着,普拉博沃在他的競選總部向支持者們發表了慷慨激昂的聲明,他說,他已撤回了自己的候選人資格,並將拒絕承認選舉結果。
「這次選舉中存在着巨大的、結構性的、系統化的舞弊行為,」他說。
但在周二晚上,他的兄弟兼首席顧問哈希姆·約約哈迪庫蘇莫(Hashim Djojohadikusumo)說,普拉博沃其實並沒有撤回候選人資格,只是要求選舉委員會再花些時間來調查投票和計票過程中的「嚴重問題」。
但是該委員會的官員們駁回了他對競選活動的指責,並表示,候選人退出對選舉結果沒有影響。
哈希姆說,普拉博沃的競選團隊還沒有決定,是否要將選舉結果訴至印尼憲法法院(Indonesian Constitutional Court)。
「我們希望KPU認真調查一下這些違規行為,」哈希姆說。KPU是「選舉委員會」的印尼語縮寫。
憲法法院是唯一有權下令對省級及以下級別的選舉進行重新計票或投票的機構,其決定具有約束力。如果接到上訴,該法院有兩周的時間來進行裁決。但分析師人士說,鑒於佐科擁有800萬票的領先優勢,法院幾乎不可能做出推翻這次全國性選舉結果的裁決。
在投票結束後的數小時內,兩個陣營都曾宣稱自己獲得勝利,所以此後的數周中,在選舉委員會統計逾48萬個投票站選票的時候,結果並不明朗。佐科將在10月20日宣誓就職。他承諾將給印尼帶來更加「以人為本」的治理方式和政策。該國雖然是由主要經濟體組成的G20集團的成員,但還有逾1億人每天的生活支出不足2美元(約合人民幣12元)。
這場勝利彰顯了佐科備受矚目的崛起,53歲的佐科出生在中爪哇省梭羅市靠近河邊的一個貧民區,從小學習木匠手藝,在2005年從政之前,他是一個傢具出口商。佐科兩次當選家鄉城市的市長,並在2012年當選為雅加達的省長。
佐科身材瘦削,不擺架子,自稱長着一張典型的「鄉村臉」。他將成為印尼第七任總統,成為該國第一位既不是出身於政治精英集團,也沒有擔任過將軍的總統。
62歲的普拉博沃是蘇哈托(Suharto)的女婿,蘇哈托是一位掌權32年之久的獨裁總統,在1998年的民主示威遊行中被迫辭職。普拉博沃是一個成功的商人,來自一個著名的爪哇政治世家,其從軍經歷並不完美,曾在擔任印尼特種部隊司令期間遭受侵犯人權的指控,後來他成為軍隊戰略後備司令部的負責人。2000年,美國拒絕了他的入境簽證;據信他被列入了一張非官方的黑名單。
本周二消息公布的幾天之前,佐科赤腳坐在在雅加達市中心的一套小出租房裡,接受了記者的採訪。他說,印尼持續的民主轉型,已經瓦解了根基穩固的政治精英集團對政府的控制。導致這種狀況的一個關鍵原因,他說,是上至總統、下到鎮長的直接選舉方式;該方式於十年前採用,是取代蘇哈托集權治理體系的國家權力下放政策的組成部分。
即將卸任的印尼總統蘇西洛·班邦·尤多約諾(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)在兩個為期五年的任期中,成功地鞏固了民主,促進了經濟的強勁增長,不久這個國家就將由佐科來領導。和中國、印度一樣,印尼是近年來亞洲增長最快的經濟體之一。但是,它之所以在2010至2012年實現逾6%的年增長率,主要是依靠其豐富的自然資源和強勁的國內消費,目前它正面臨著一些嚴峻挑戰。
這些挑戰包括貿易赤字、每年耗費數百億美元國家預算的國家燃油補貼、基礎設施不足、腐敗、貧窮,以及日益擴大的貧富差距。
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