IBM shares had their worst day in more than 25 years, after Anthropic said its Claude Code tool can help modernize Cobol, a dated programming language that’s run on IBM computers.
想當年大叔為了學 COBOL 給碁峰賺了不少參考書的錢（歷史的眼淚）23日の美國股市中，IBM 股價較上個週末大跌約13％。這是 IBM 單日最大跌幅之一，上一次出現同等級的急挫要追溯到 IT 泡沫破裂後、2000年10月以來。市場解讀，導火線來自美國 AI 新創企業 Anthropic 的最新說法，投資人擔心這會動搖 IBM 以大型主機與相關服務為核心的獲利基礎。
Anthropic 在23日的部落格文章中指出，自家用於生成原始碼的 AI 工具「Claude Code」，可加速使用 COBOL 撰寫的既有系統更新。COBOL 是 1950 年代誕生的程式語言，長期用於 IBM 擅長的「大型主機」環境，至今仍被金融機構與政府單位等關鍵系統採用。由於熟練工程師逐年減少、維運門檻升高，許多單位面臨把 COBOL 轉換到 Java 等主流語言的壓力。
Anthropic 宣稱，透過 AI 自動化部分工作，過去往往得以「年」為單位推進的 COBOL 系統現代化，未來可能縮短到以「季」為單位完成。這種說法讓市場迅速放大聯想：IBM 目前仍高度倚賴包含大型主機銷售在內的基礎建設部門營收，同時也靠協助 COBOL 遺留系統翻新取得可觀收入；如果 AI 讓人力需求與工作量下降，相關高毛利業務的議價能力與規模就可能被削弱。
不過，COBOL 多用在高度重視穩定性的領域，短期內要全面改用 AI 產生的程式碼，外界普遍認為不會一口氣推進。此外，當天科技股本就受多重因素拖累，包括川普政府關稅政策走向的不確定性，以及市場對 AI 題材的疑慮升溫，IBM 也被捲入「尋找賣點」的情緒之中。Wedbush 證券分析師丹尼爾・艾夫斯指出，市場對 Claude Code 可能是過度反應，導致 IBM 一起被風暴掃到。
同一時間，與 Anthropic 相關的另一波影響也在擴散。由於該公司20日公布的資安相關功能引發市場連鎖反應，資安類股也出現賣壓；23日大型資安公司 CrowdStrike 股價較前週末下跌10％。這顯示當前市場對 AI 競爭與產業版圖變化高度敏感，任何訊號都可能被迅速定價並放大波動。
reached a major peak in visibility, influencing the US presidential election and establishing a formal, comprehensive policy platform. Following police killings of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile in July 2016, national protests surged, and the Movement for Black Lives (M4BL) released "A Vision for Black Lives," outlining six key demands.
Key aspects of the 2016 movement included:
Policy Platform: In August 2016, M4BL launched a platform demanding reparations, an end to the war on Black people, divestment from police, and investment in communities.
Political Impact: The movement pressured 2016 presidential candidates to address systemic racism and criminal justice reform.
Summer of Protest: July 2016 saw a massive increase in protest activity and social media engagement (over 422,000 tweets in one day) following the deaths of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile.
Institutional Shift: The movement began successfully shifting national discourse on issues like police funding, with calls to reallocate funds toward social services.
The 2016 activity marked a critical, highly organized phase of the broader movement, setting the stage for future activism against systemic injustice.
Whose lives mattered? How White and Black Americans felt about ...
Jun 15, 2021 — DATA, MEASURES, AND METHODS. We use data from the 2016 American National Election Studies Time Series Survey to explore racial dif...
Cambridge University Press & Assessment
Movement for Black Lives - Wikipedia
Platform and statements. The movement's platform, published in August 2016, entitled A Vision for Black Lives: Policy Demands for ...
Wikipedia
1. Ten years of #BlackLivesMatter on Twitter - Pew Research Center
Jun 29, 2023 — Use of the #BlackLivesMatter hashtag increased dramatically in November 2014, to a peak of more than 95,000 times in a single day.
Black Lives Matter (BLM) is a decentralized political and social movement that aims to highlight racism, discrimination and racial inequality experienced by ...Read more
ICE’s “streamlined end-to-end immigration life cycle” software will fuse greater amounts of information, including from novel sources, according to a former leader of the agency
Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, criticized President Trump’s rapid reorientation of U.S. foreign policy.德國總理弗里德里希·默茨在慕尼黑安全會議上發表講話，批評川普總統迅速調整美國外交政策。
Vicki Abt, a sociologist and author who lambasted the television talk show hosts Oprah Winfrey, Phil Donahue and Sally Jessy Raphael for coarsening America’s culture by sensationalizing deviant behavior and personal tragedies to boost ratings, died on Feb. 1 in Lansdale, Pa. She was 83.
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"It appears Mr Trump’s return to the White House marks less a new direction for American foreign policy, more a resurrection of America’s past", argues Britain’s former ambassador to America
As America is about to turn 250, its politics are raw, fractured and volatile. History can provide context for the country’s current predicament https://econ.st/3Nft2gy
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Surveying his geopolitical scorecard at the end of last year, Xi Jinping had reasons to be cheerful. Today, the world looks more unsettling for China’s leader https://econ.st/3YQSr2B
Trump 總統已明確表示，他將動用一切手段來追求美國的赤裸裸的自身利益。這種坦率令人難以信服。
The president has made it clear that he will use practically every means of leverage he has in pursuit of America’s naked self-interest. Such candour is cold comfort https://econ.st/4qdYWZa
America worries that Huawei, China's telecoms giant, spies on behalf of its government and threatens Western interests. Such concerns are not just about America's security, but also its insecurity https://econ.st/2rAumka
20世紀，美國援外的義舉感人：ARA AND Marshall Plan American Relief Administration (ARA) was an American relief mission to Europe and later post-revolutionary Russia after World War I. Herbert Hoover, future president of the United States, was the program director.
The ARA's immediate predecessor was the important United States Food Administration, also headed by Hoover. He and some of his collaborators had already gained useful experience by running the Committee for Relief in Belgium whic⋯⋯
American Relief Administration (ARA) was an American relief mission to Europe and later post-revolutionary Russia after World War I. Herbert Hoover, future president of the United States, was the program director.
《美國製造－凝視美國文明》、《我為何成為美國公民；我的猶太人旅程》。 Guy Sorman來台數次，我見過2次。他 是少數熟知法國總統顧問"業務"與地方政治運作的知識分子。 他認為美國是獨特的，所以西方國家，可分為歐洲的與美國的。從60年代起，過50多年，美國已經改頭換面了。......
Guy Sorman《美國製造－凝視美國文明》； 這一本書並不是一個美國現況的立即描述，而是一部個人的史詩：經過長期的成熟過程，作者不再一樣了，但是美國的改變並不會少於作者個人。在1962 年的時候，美國是一個僅僅由白人與黑人組成，國內充滿種族歧視，在行為上則是一個極端保守的社會，但是也是一個工業化的國家。
Thomas L. Friedman, Michael Mandelbaum； That Used To Be Us: How America Fell Behind In The World It Invented And How We Can Come Back
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美國的政治、社會、法律、經濟；民主制度等
《美國的民主》 上卷 托克維爾(Alexis de Tocqueville,1805-1859)著 ; 秦修明譯 Tocqueville, Alexis de, 1805-1859. ; 1966.
《美國政治綱要》OUTLINE OF AMERICAN GOVERNMENT 英中對照 USIS 《掌握航向 : 美國如何制訂政策 /》 今日世界出版社編譯 [19--?]
《美國政府簡介 》斯克羅德(Schroeder, Richard C.- )撰; 今日世界出版社編譯; 民67. 《政府的力量》台北：國立編譯館，1971
The Strength of Government — McGeorge Bundy | Harvard ... McGeorge Bundy here contends that our national government is dangerously weak. ... He calls for a new theory of government, reconciling strong political authority with widespread political participation; and he advises people under thirty on preparing for their own participation.
64 An outline of American geography = Meiguo di li shu lue / [Ye'er N Miteman zhu bian] ; Meiguo xin wen chu bian yi.; 美國地理述略/ [耶爾・N・密特曼主編] ; 美國新聞處編譯1976.
16 佛洛斯特的詩 Comprehensive study guide to seven poems by Robert Frost / 主編 李達三, 談德義 ; 編輯 田維新 等 Frost, Robert, 1874-1963. 1977.
17 狄瑾蓀的詩Comprehensive study guide to twenty poems by Emily Dickinson / 李達三, 談德義主編; 田維新等編輯Dickinson, Emily, 1830-1886. ; 狄金生(Dickinson, Emily, 1830-1886) ; 1977
18 惠特曼的詩 Comprehensive study guide to Walt Whitman's "When Lilacs last in the dooryard blomm'd" and "A noiseless patient spider" / 主編李達三, 談德義 ; 編輯田維新等 1977.
73 威廉.福克納/ 歐康納(William Van O'Conner)著; 田維新譯O'Conner, William Van. ; 歐康納(O'Conner, William Van) ; 1984[民73] University of minnesota pamphlets on American writers. ; 美國作家專輯
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***** 今日世界出版社 266
掌握航向 : 美國如何制訂政策 / 今日世界出版社編譯 [19--?]
2 美國政府簡介 / 斯克羅德(Schroeder, Richard C.- )撰 ; 今日世界出版社編譯 Schroeder, Richard C.- ; 斯克羅德 (Schroeder, Richard C.- ) ; 民67. 可在 辜振甫圖書館
16 佛洛斯特的詩 Comprehensive study guide to seven poems by Robert Frost / 主編 李達三, 談德義 ; 編輯 田維新 等 Frost, Robert, 1874-1963. 1977.
17 圖書 狄瑾蓀的詩 Comprehensive study guide to twenty poems by Emily Dickinson / 李達三, 談德義主編 ; 田維新等編輯 Dickinson, Emily, 1830-1886. ; 狄金生 (Dickinson, Emily, 1830-1886) ; 1977
18 惠特曼的詩 Comprehensive study guide to Walt Whitman's "When Lilacs last in the dooryard blomm'd" and "A noiseless patient spider" / 主編李達三, 談德義 ; 編輯田維新等 1977.
20 自力更生 Give us the tools / [韋士嘉地著 ; 朱廉譯] Viscardi, Henry, 1912-2004. 1978.
21 美國現代政治家 威廉・懷德著 ; 趙銘譯 White, William Smith. 1974.
22 杜魯門總統任內錄 By Cabell Phillips ; 李宜培譯 Phillips, Cabell B. H. 1970.
67 音乐欣赏 伯恩斯坦著 ; 林声翕译 Bernstein, Leonard, 1918-1990. 1989. 69 小鎮 湯新楣譯 Richter, Conrad, 1890-1968. 1975. 70 狂戀 陳礎宏譯 英奇, 1913- 1977. 72 傳播媒體之功能 = The role of the media / 梅爾.奧廷傑(Mal Oettinger),約翰.施蒂(John Stirn),瓦萊里.克魯策爾(Valerie Kreutzer)編 1985.
73 威廉.福克納 / 歐康納(William Van O'Conner)著 ; 田維新譯 O'Conner, William Van. ; 歐康納 (O'Conner, William Van) ; 1984[民73] University of minnesota pamphlets on American writers. ; 美國作家專輯
Photo Credit: 經濟新潮社出版
