Netanyahu’s Gamble Paid Off for Him but Not for His Country
Benjamin Netanyahu Offers $5 Million for Each Hostage Freed in Gaza
As he resists pressure to reach a cease-fire deal that would release the captives, Israel’s prime minister is now offering a reward for their freedom.
伊朗
歷時超過半年的以哈戰爭迎來驚人的進展，加薩地區武裝組織哈瑪斯政治辦公室負責人伊斯瑪儀.哈尼亞（Ismail Haniyeh）在伊朗首都德黑蘭遭到暗殺身亡。這是衝突爆發以來，以色列對哈瑪斯最新的重大打擊。
2023年10月7日哈瑪斯發動突擊綁架以色列數百名平民人質並退回加薩，此後以色列對加薩發動大規模軍事行動，據聯合國統計，至今造成超過四萬名巴勒斯坦平民喪生（半數為婦女兒童）以及超過1400名以色列人（近400名為軍人）喪生。
實際上，雙方這幾週衝突規模擴大超出了加薩地區，以色列分別在前幾天攻擊了黎巴嫩南部，也空襲了葉門胡賽組織的軍事基地。在今天同一天貝魯特空襲了一名哈瑪斯指揮官。這讓雙方正在談判的停火協議可以說幾乎崩潰，也讓積極敦促雙方達成停火的美國與埃及努力白費。
#哈尼亞
哈尼亞不是普通的哈瑪斯領導人，而是過去數十年來最重要的哈瑪斯人物。1962年出生在加薩的難民營當中，進入加薩的伊斯蘭大學就讀，1987年第一次巴勒斯坦大起義那年，也是哈瑪斯創立那年就加入組織，並稱為創辦人亞辛的左右手，出身可謂「根正苗紅」。
2004亞辛遭到以色列暗殺後，哈尼亞成為領導人，並在2006年巴勒斯坦大選當中，由於哈瑪斯贏得多數席次成為總理，不過該次選舉結果遭到以色列與西方抵制，造成哈瑪斯與西岸巴解分裂，哈瑪斯控制加薩至今。當年哈尼亞曾提出願意接受1967年邊界並進入和平議程，但遭到美國忽略。
以色列刺殺哈尼耶更像是針對哈瑪斯，而非報復10/7的綁架，因為哈尼亞從2017年就不在加薩，他多數時間都在做外交工作，10/7的綁架是哈瑪斯在加薩本地的軍事部門策劃與執行的，不清楚哈尼亞到底所知多少，更何況哈尼亞過去幾個月都在為停火協議奔波。以色列此舉可能把哈瑪斯能對話的窗口殺掉，讓剩下都軍事強硬派，使得戰爭更無協商的餘地。
值得一提的是，2012年以色列在一次空襲當中殺害了哈尼亞的三個兒子以及四個孫子女。做為與以色列敵對的人，最終自己也付出了生命。
#納坦亞胡政治生存賽
目前以色列尚未發表公開聲明，不過不少觀察家認為這是以色列總理再度試圖擴大戰線並保持自己繼續掌權，官司纏身以及不得民心的他一旦面對戰事結束，就可能被迫下台結束政治生命。過去幾個月以色列街頭有過幾次大規模針對納坦亞胡的抗議，一些以色列人認為納坦亞胡無心拯救人質，刻意拖延戰爭。
當然納坦亞胡抓到了機會，透過把戰事擴大到黎巴嫩南部真主黨（過去幾個月以來一直避免正面衝突）以及葉門的胡賽組織，這場以哈戰爭正局部滑向區域戰爭，誤判與擴大的風險更大。而由於納坦亞胡政府目標是消滅哈瑪斯，哈瑪斯綁架的以色列人質早就脫離了整個戰爭的主軸。
#伊朗的角色
哈尼亞遭到暗殺無疑讓伊朗臉上無光，哈尼亞在德黑蘭是為了參加新總統的就職典禮，參加完不到12小時就在下榻的旅館遭到暗殺。值得注意的是，伊朗會有新總統也是因為幾個月前前任總統萊西出訪時搭乘直升機墜機，陰謀論認為是以色列幹的（不過沒什麼證據而且也看不出理由）。
伊朗新任總統與伊朗革命衛隊都已經揚言報復，痛批以色列在自家領土上殺害來客。不過講是這樣講，一些觀察家認為伊朗不會有太劇烈的舉動，因為這正中納坦亞胡下懷。以色列在加薩正在打一場不可能贏得勝利的戰爭，遲早會面對戰略性失敗，加上西方指控以色列大屠殺的聲音越來越大，伊朗更適合繼續隔岸觀火。
因此伊朗可以吞下這次丟臉，畢竟過往幾次伊朗面對美國或以色列針對自己的攻擊，都採取謹慎有限的報復，避免捲入衝突。但也有人認為伊朗無論大小的報復行動可能讓局勢變得更複雜，擴大衝突。
回過頭來說，這並非以色列第一次在伊朗本土搞暗殺，2020年，以色列在一輛轎車上安裝自動機，遠端遙控槍殺害伊朗核科學家Mohsen Fakhrizadeh，當時就讓伊朗安全部門臉面無光。而這次哈尼亞在伊朗遭殺害，恐怕伊朗的安全部門很需要檢討。
Israel-Hamas WarA Growing Rift in Israel
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ANALYSIS
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is in a bind: To end the war in Gaza, he risks losing power at home.
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OPINION
Netanyahu Led Us to Catastrophe. He Must Go.
Israelis must demand a national accounting for what made the military disaster of Oct. 7 possible.
By Gershom Gorenberg
此次前所未見的以巴衝突，表明近廿年強勢執政的以色列想法，種種做法，都“破產”。
"The real explanation for Israel’s dysfunction is populism rather than any alleged immorality. For many years, Israel has been governed by a populist strongman, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is a public-relations genius but an incompetent prime minister. He has repeatedly preferred his personal interests over the national interest and has built his career on dividing the nation against itself. He has appointed people to key positions based on loyalty more than qualifications, took credit for every success while never taking responsibility for failures, and seemed to give little importance to either telling or hearing the truth."
Analysis: Netanyahu Attempts Another Juggling Act, Maybe His Toughest Yet
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is caught between his far-right coalition and public anger over the government’s plan to weaken the judiciary.
分析：內塔尼亞胡嘗試另一個雜耍表演，也許是他迄今為止最艱難的表演
以色列總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡 (Benjamin Netanyahu) 在他的極右翼聯盟與公眾對政府削弱司法機構計劃的憤怒之間左右為難。
Inside the U.S. Pressure Campaign Over Israel’s Judicial Overhaul
President Biden bombarded the Israeli government with warnings that the country’s image as the sole democracy in the Middle East was at stake.
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極右反民主Benjamin Netanyahu
Israel Boils as Netanyahu Ousts Minister Who Bucked Court Overhaul
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Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Who Urged Delay in Court Overhaul
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel removed Yoav Gallant, intensifying an already dramatic domestic crisis and setting off raucous protests.
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Benjamin Netanyahu - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Benj...
בִּנְיָמִין נְתַנְיָהוּ (help ... info); born 21 October 1949) is an Israeli politician who served as the ninth prime minister of Israel from 2009 to 2021, and previously from 1996 to 1999. Netanyahu currently serves as Leader of the ...
BREAKING: Benjamin Netanyahu is out as prime minister of Israel.
BLOOMBERG.COM
Israel’s Parliament Votes in Government That Boots Out Netanyahu
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納坦雅胡Netanyahu’s address to Congress納坦雅胡 (以色列總理)到華府撒野
司馬觀點：叢林裏的別墅（江春男）
2015年03月20日 納坦雅胡的作風頗受爭議，在國內外樹敵很多。他在西岸擴充定居點，反對巴勒斯坦建國，公開挑戰歐巴馬，大打族群牌，阻擋以巴和平進程，使以色列在國際上更加孤立，而且以國經濟持續惡化，物價房價大漲，選情對他不利，結果卻逆轉勝，第三度當選總理。
他的左派對手支持兩國論，主張對巴勒斯坦讓步，用土地換取和平，選前情勢看好。納坦批評左派逃避問題，把頭埋在沙裏，對和平懷有幻想，自欺欺人。結果危機牌果然奏效。
一名以色列教授形容以色列像「叢林裏的別墅」，叢林裏都是兇惡敵人，充斥血腥戰亂，沒有半個朋友，生死全靠自己。納坦雅胡的缺點很多，但是面對困難時，不憂不懼，勇往直前，頗有領袖氣質，給人安全感。而他的對手顯得太理性，可當太平宰相，但不足以治亂世。
納坦家世不凡，父親是備受敬重的猶太學者，哥哥是英勇的突擊隊長，在北非搶救人質時單獨遇難，人質和隊員都安全回來。納坦先在美國念書，後當駐美大使，對美國政情十分熟悉，他親切熱情，辯才無礙，橫衝直撞，不怕得罪人，典型的以色列作風。
納坦信仰錫安復國主義，相信以色列是上帝對猶太人的神聖許諾，與聯合國或外交協議無關。他相信實力原則，主張以暴治暴，加倍奉還，對恐怖份子絕不手軟。幾年前，他派兵大舉攻入加薩，造成一千多巴人喪生，包括兩百名兒童。巴勒斯坦人準備以戰爭罪在國際法庭控告他。
以色列採內閣制，投票選黨不選人，最低門檻3.25％，小黨林立，必須透過談判組成聯合政府，猶太人特別會討價還價，花一個月時間也不一定談得完。納坦已經當選，但它的政府尚未誕生。
他是識時務的人，再度執政後，應會調整立場放棄族群牌，否則以巴關係每下愈況，永無寧日。
Bill Moyers
"Sheldon Adelson was not only sitting in the House gallery on Tuesday because of the strings he pulls here in the United States. He is also the Daddy Warbucks of Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu is yet another of his beneficiaries." -- Bill Moyers and Michael Winship.
Netanyahu Speaks, Money Talks
BILLMOYERS.COM
8 個分類：
1933年出生
在世人物
美國企業家
猶太企業家
美國慈善家
美國億萬富豪
美國猶太人
麻薩諸塞州人
English
"Even if Israel has to stand alone, Israel will stand." - Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו
The complete transcript of Netanyahu’s address to Congress
"May God bless the state of Israel and may God bless the United States...
WASHINGTONPOST.COM
司馬觀點：以色列總理到華府撒野（江春男）
2015年03月05日
一位以色列學者說，「作為以色列人，我們最善於輸出的是大膽和放肆」，這話一點都不假，以色列人講話坦率而粗魯，不會轉彎抹角，常常讓人受不了，這次，納坦雅胡專程跑去華府向歐巴馬嗆聲，並不是意外。
美國是以色列最重要的盟友，每年援助以國二、三十億美元，納坦雅胡不怕惹毛歐巴馬，因為猶太遊說勢力強大，國會幾乎一面倒支持以色列，共和黨控制國會，歐巴馬吹鬍子瞪眼，也沒在怕。
納坦雅胡在美國作秀，主要是為了下個月的大選，他不惜得罪美國政府，傷害國家利益，反對黨對他大肆抨擊，他對伊朗核武的危言聳聽，以國的軍情首長也看不過去，出面反駁。但是以色列社會本來就亂哄哄，相當粗魯的。
納坦雅胡上次在白宮與歐巴馬見面，不顧外交禮儀，在老歐面前上歷史課，教他如何正確理解猶太人的苦難，讓白宮官員氣死了。歐巴馬對納坦雅胡不信任，與法國總統私下嘲笑他，故意洩露給媒體，藉機羞辱他。
歐巴馬成長於芝加哥，信仰進步思想，關心弱勢和社會正義，而納坦雅胡是猶太復國主義者，相信實力原則，是大右派，兩人世界觀完全不同。不過，美國的中東政策一團糟，受到共和黨的壓力，對以色列的反彈也不敢太大意。
以國人不信歐巴馬
依據以色列民調，信任歐巴馬的不到10%，大約3/4認為歐巴馬親巴勒斯坦。國內有民意可恃，又有美國國會撐腰，納坦雅胡才不怕惹毛。
當然，最重要的是，以色列有能力保衛自己，為了生存和安全，全國團結，自立自強。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is addressing a joint meeting of Congress; here is a complete transcript of his remarks.
NETANYAHU: Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you...
(APPLAUSE)
... Speaker of the House John Boehner, President Pro Tem Senator Orrin Hatch, Senator Minority -- Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
I also want to acknowledge Senator, Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Harry, it's good to see you back on your feet.
(APPLAUSE)
I guess it's true what they say, you can't keep a good man down.
(LAUGHTER)
My friends, I'm deeply humbled by the opportunity to speak for a third time before the most important legislative body in the world, the U.S. Congress.
(APPLAUSE)
I want to thank you all for being here today. I know that my speech has been the subject of much controversy. I deeply regret that some perceive my being here as political. That was never my intention.
I want to thank you, Democrats and Republicans, for your common support for Israel, year after year, decade after decade.
(APPLAUSE)
I know that no matter on which side of the aisle you sit, you stand with Israel.
(APPLAUSE)
[READ: Republicans loved every word of Bibi's address]
The remarkable alliance between Israel and the United States has always been above politics. It must always remain above politics.
(APPLAUSE)
Because America and Israel, we share a common destiny, the destiny of promised lands that cherish freedom and offer hope. Israel is grateful for the support of American -- of America's people and of America's presidents, from Harry Truman to Barack Obama.
(APPLAUSE)
We appreciate all that President Obama has done for Israel.
Now, some of that is widely known.
(APPLAUSE)
Some of that is widely known, like strengthening security cooperation and intelligence sharing, opposing anti-Israel resolutions at the U.N.
Some of what the president has done for Israel is less well- known.
I called him in 2010 when we had the Carmel forest fire, and he immediately agreed to respond to my request for urgent aid.
In 2011, we had our embassy in Cairo under siege, and again, he provided vital assistance at the crucial moment.
Or his support for more missile interceptors during our operation last summer when we took on Hamas terrorists.
(APPLAUSE)
In each of those moments, I called the president, and he was there.
And some of what the president has done for Israel might never be known, because it touches on some of the most sensitive and strategic issues that arise between an American president and an Israeli prime minister.
But I know it, and I will always be grateful to President Obama for that support.
(APPLAUSE)
And Israel is grateful to you, the American Congress, for your support, for supporting us in so many ways, especially in generous military assistance and missile defense, including Iron Dome.
(APPLAUSE)
Last summer, millions of Israelis were protected from thousands of Hamas rockets because this capital dome helped build our Iron Dome.
(APPLAUSE)
Thank you, America. Thank you for everything you've done for Israel.
My friends, I've come here today because, as prime minister of Israel, I feel a profound obligation to speak to you about an issue that could well threaten the survival of my country and the future of my people: Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.
We're an ancient people. In our nearly 4,000 years of history, many have tried repeatedly to destroy the Jewish people. Tomorrow night, on the Jewish holiday of Purim, we'll read the Book of Esther. We'll read of a powerful Persian viceroy named Haman, who plotted to destroy the Jewish people some 2,500 years ago. But a courageous Jewish woman, Queen Esther, exposed the plot and gave for the Jewish people the right to defend themselves against their enemies.
The plot was foiled. Our people were saved.
(APPLAUSE)
Today the Jewish people face another attempt by yet another Persian potentate to destroy us. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei spews the oldest hatred, the oldest hatred of anti-Semitism with the newest technology. He tweets that Israel must be annihilated -- he tweets. You know, in Iran, there isn't exactly free Internet. But he tweets in English that Israel must be destroyed.
For those who believe that Iran threatens the Jewish state, but not the Jewish people, listen to Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran's chief terrorist proxy. He said: If all the Jews gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of chasing them down around the world.
But Iran's regime is not merely a Jewish problem, any more than the Nazi regime was merely a Jewish problem. The 6 million Jews murdered by the Nazis were but a fraction of the 60 million people killed in World War II. So, too, Iran's regime poses a grave threat, not only to Israel, but also the peace of the entire world. To understand just how dangerous Iran would be with nuclear weapons, we must fully understand the nature of the regime.
The people of Iran are very talented people. They're heirs to one of the world's great civilizations. But in 1979, they were hijacked by religious zealots -- religious zealots who imposed on them immediately a dark and brutal dictatorship.
That year, the zealots drafted a constitution, a new one for Iran. It directed the revolutionary guards not only to protect Iran's borders, but also to fulfill the ideological mission of jihad. The regime's founder, Ayatollah Khomeini, exhorted his followers to "export the revolution throughout the world."
I'm standing here in Washington, D.C. and the difference is so stark. America's founding document promises life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Iran's founding document pledges death, tyranny, and the pursuit of jihad. And as states are collapsing across the Middle East, Iran is charging into the void to do just that.
Iran's goons in Gaza, its lackeys in Lebanon, its revolutionary guards on the Golan Heights are clutching Israel with three tentacles of terror. Backed by Iran, Assad is slaughtering Syrians. Back by Iran, Shiite militias are rampaging through Iraq. Back by Iran, Houthis are seizing control of Yemen, threatening the strategic straits at the mouth of the Red Sea. Along with the Straits of Hormuz, that would give Iran a second choke-point on the world's oil supply.
Just last week, near Hormuz, Iran carried out a military exercise blowing up a mock U.S. aircraft carrier. That's just last week, while they're having nuclear talks with the United States. But unfortunately, for the last 36 years, Iran's attacks against the United States have been anything but mock. And the targets have been all too real.
Iran took dozens of Americans hostage in Tehran, murdered hundreds of American soldiers, Marines, in Beirut, and was responsible for killing and maiming thousands of American service men and women in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beyond the Middle East, Iran attacks America and its allies through its global terror network. It blew up the Jewish community center and the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. It helped Al Qaida bomb U.S. embassies in Africa. It even attempted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador, right here in Washington, D.C.
In the Middle East, Iran now dominates four Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa. And if Iran's aggression is left unchecked, more will surely follow.
So, at a time when many hope that Iran will join the community of nations, Iran is busy gobbling up the nations.
(APPLAUSE)
We must all stand together to stop Iran's march of conquest, subjugation and terror.
(APPLAUSE)
Now, two years ago, we were told to give President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif a chance to bring change and moderation to Iran. Some change! Some moderation!
Rouhani's government hangs gays, persecutes Christians, jails journalists and executes even more prisoners than before.
Last year, the same Zarif who charms Western diplomats laid a wreath at the grave of Imad Mughniyeh. Imad Mughniyeh is the terrorist mastermind who spilled more American blood than any other terrorist besides Osama bin Laden. I'd like to see someone ask him a question about that.
Iran's regime is as radical as ever, its cries of "Death to America," that same America that it calls the "Great Satan," as loud as ever.
Now, this shouldn't be surprising, because the ideology of Iran's revolutionary regime is deeply rooted in militant Islam, and that's why this regime will always be an enemy of America.
Don't be fooled. The battle between Iran and ISIS doesn't turn Iran into a friend of America.
Iran and ISIS are competing for the crown of militant Islam. One calls itself the Islamic Republic. The other calls itself the Islamic State. Both want to impose a militant Islamic empire first on the region and then on the entire world. They just disagree among themselves who will be the ruler of that empire.
In this deadly game of thrones, there's no place for America or for Israel, no peace for Christians, Jews or Muslims who don't share the Islamist medieval creed, no rights for women, no freedom for anyone.
So when it comes to Iran and ISIS, the enemy of your enemy is your enemy.
(APPLAUSE)
The difference is that ISIS is armed with butcher knives, captured weapons and YouTube, whereas Iran could soon be armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs. We must always remember -- I'll say it one more time -- the greatest dangers facing our world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons. To defeat ISIS and let Iran get nuclear weapons would be to win the battle, but lose the war. We can't let that happen.
(APPLAUSE)
But that, my friends, is exactly what could happen, if the deal now being negotiated is accepted by Iran. That deal will not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. It would all but guarantee that Iran gets those weapons, lots of them.
Let me explain why. While the final deal has not yet been signed, certain elements of any potential deal are now a matter of public record. You don't need intelligence agencies and secret information to know this. You can Google it.
Absent a dramatic change, we know for sure that any deal with Iran will include two major concessions to Iran.
The first major concession would leave Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure, providing it with a short break-out time to the bomb. Break-out time is the time it takes to amass enough weapons-grade uranium or plutonium for a nuclear bomb.
According to the deal, not a single nuclear facility would be demolished. Thousands of centrifuges used to enrich uranium would be left spinning. Thousands more would be temporarily disconnected, but not destroyed.
Because Iran's nuclear program would be left largely intact, Iran's break-out time would be very short -- about a year by U.S. assessment, even shorter by Israel's.
And if -- if Iran's work on advanced centrifuges, faster and faster centrifuges, is not stopped, that break-out time could still be shorter, a lot shorter.
True, certain restrictions would be imposed on Iran's nuclear program and Iran's adherence to those restrictions would be supervised by international inspectors. But here's the problem. You see, inspectors document violations; they don't stop them.
Inspectors knew when North Korea broke to the bomb, but that didn't stop anything. North Korea turned off the cameras, kicked out the inspectors. Within a few years, it got the bomb.
Now, we're warned that within five years North Korea could have an arsenal of 100 nuclear bombs.
Like North Korea, Iran, too, has defied international inspectors. It's done that on at least three separate occasions -- 2005, 2006, 2010. Like North Korea, Iran broke the locks, shut off the cameras.
Now, I know this is not gonna come a shock -- as a shock to any of you, but Iran not only defies inspectors, it also plays a pretty good game of hide-and-cheat with them.
The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, the IAEA, said again yesterday that Iran still refuses to come clean about its military nuclear program. Iran was also caught -- caught twice, not once, twice -- operating secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom, facilities that inspectors didn't even know existed.
Right now, Iran could be hiding nuclear facilities that we don't know about, the U.S. and Israel. As the former head of inspections for the IAEA said in 2013, he said, "If there's no undeclared installation today in Iran, it will be the first time in 20 years that it doesn't have one." Iran has proven time and again that it cannot be trusted. And that's why the first major concession is a source of great concern. It leaves Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure and relies on inspectors to prevent a breakout. That concession creates a real danger that Iran could get to the bomb by violating the deal.
But the second major concession creates an even greater danger that Iran could get to the bomb by keeping the deal. Because virtually all the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program will automatically expire in about a decade.
Now, a decade may seem like a long time in political life, but it's the blink of an eye in the life of a nation. It's a blink of an eye in the life of our children. We all have a responsibility to consider what will happen when Iran's nuclear capabilities are virtually unrestricted and all the sanctions will have been lifted. Iran would then be free to build a huge nuclear capacity that could product many, many nuclear bombs.
Iran's Supreme Leader says that openly. He says, Iran plans to have 190,000 centrifuges, not 6,000 or even the 19,000 that Iran has today, but 10 times that amount -- 190,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. With this massive capacity, Iran could make the fuel for an entire nuclear arsenal and this in a matter of weeks, once it makes that decision.
My long-time friend, John Kerry, Secretary of State, confirmed last week that Iran could legitimately possess that massive centrifuge capacity when the deal expires.
Now I want you to think about that. The foremost sponsor of global terrorism could be weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for an entire arsenal of nuclear weapons and this with full international legitimacy.
And by the way, if Iran's Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program is not part of the deal, and so far, Iran refuses to even put it on the negotiating table. Well, Iran could have the means to deliver that nuclear arsenal to the far-reach corners of the earth, including to every part of the United States.
So you see, my friends, this deal has two major concessions: one, leaving Iran with a vast nuclear program and two, lifting the restrictions on that program in about a decade. That's why this deal is so bad. It doesn't block Iran's path to the bomb; it paves Iran's path to the bomb.
So why would anyone make this deal? Because they hope that Iran will change for the better in the coming years, or they believe that the alternative to this deal is worse?
Well, I disagree. I don't believe that Iran's radical regime will change for the better after this deal. This regime has been in power for 36 years, and its voracious appetite for aggression grows with each passing year. This deal would wet appetite -- would only wet Iran's appetite for more.
Would Iran be less aggressive when sanctions are removed and its economy is stronger? If Iran is gobbling up four countries right now while it's under sanctions, how many more countries will Iran devour when sanctions are lifted? Would Iran fund less terrorism when it has mountains of cash with which to fund more terrorism?
Why should Iran's radical regime change for the better when it can enjoy the best of both world's: aggression abroad, prosperity at home?
This is a question that everyone asks in our region. Israel's neighbors -- Iran's neighbors know that Iran will become even more aggressive and sponsor even more terrorism when its economy is unshackled and it's been given a clear path to the bomb.
And many of these neighbors say they'll respond by racing to get nuclear weapons of their own. So this deal won't change Iran for the better; it will only change the Middle East for the worse. A deal that's supposed to prevent nuclear proliferation would instead spark a nuclear arms race in the most dangerous part of the planet.
This deal won't be a farewell to arms. It would be a farewell to arms control. And the Middle East would soon be crisscrossed by nuclear tripwires. A region where small skirmishes can trigger big wars would turn into a nuclear tinderbox.
If anyone thinks -- if anyone thinks this deal kicks the can down the road, think again. When we get down that road, we'll face a much more dangerous Iran, a Middle East littered with nuclear bombs and a countdown to a potential nuclear nightmare.
Ladies and gentlemen, I've come here today to tell you we don't have to bet the security of the world on the hope that Iran will change for the better. We don't have to gamble with our future and with our children's future.
We can insist that restrictions on Iran's nuclear program not be lifted for as long as Iran continues its aggression in the region and in the world.
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Before lifting those restrictions, the world should demand that Iran do three things. First, stop its aggression against its neighbors in the Middle East. Second...
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Second, stop supporting terrorism around the world.
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And third, stop threatening to annihilate my country, Israel, the one and only Jewish state.
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Thank you.
If the world powers are not prepared to insist that Iran change its behavior before a deal is signed, at the very least they should insist that Iran change its behavior before a deal expires.
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If Iran changes its behavior, the restrictions would be lifted. If Iran doesn't change its behavior, the restrictions should not be lifted.
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If Iran wants to be treated like a normal country, let it act like a normal country.
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My friends, what about the argument that there's no alternative to this deal, that Iran's nuclear know-how cannot be erased, that its nuclear program is so advanced that the best we can do is delay the inevitable, which is essentially what the proposed deal seeks to do?
Well, nuclear know-how without nuclear infrastructure doesn't get you very much. A racecar driver without a car can't drive. A pilot without a plan can't fly. Without thousands of centrifuges, tons of enriched uranium or heavy water facilities, Iran can't make nuclear weapons.
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Iran's nuclear program can be rolled back well-beyond the current proposal by insisting on a better deal and keeping up the pressure on a very vulnerable regime, especially given the recent collapse in the price of oil.
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Now, if Iran threatens to walk away from the table -- and this often happens in a Persian bazaar -- call their bluff. They'll be back, because they need the deal a lot more than you do.
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And by maintaining the pressure on Iran and on those who do business with Iran, you have the power to make them need it even more.
My friends, for over a year, we've been told that no deal is better than a bad deal. Well, this is a bad deal. It's a very bad deal. We're better off without it.
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Now we're being told that the only alternative to this bad deal is war. That's just not true.
The alternative to this bad deal is a much better deal.
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A better deal that doesn't leave Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure and such a short break-out time. A better deal that keeps the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in place until Iran's aggression ends.
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A better deal that won't give Iran an easy path to the bomb. A better deal that Israel and its neighbors may not like, but with which we could live, literally. And no country...
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... no country has a greater stake -- no country has a greater stake than Israel in a good deal that peacefully removes this threat.
Ladies and gentlemen, history has placed us at a fateful crossroads. We must now choose between two paths. One path leads to a bad deal that will at best curtail Iran's nuclear ambitions for a while, but it will inexorably lead to a nuclear-armed Iran whose unbridled aggression will inevitably lead to war.
The second path, however difficult, could lead to a much better deal, that would prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, a nuclearized Middle East and the horrific consequences of both to all of humanity.
You don't have to read Robert Frost to know. You have to live life to know that the difficult path is usually the one less traveled, but it will make all the difference for the future of my country, the security of the Middle East and the peace of the world, the peace, we all desire.
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My friend, standing up to Iran is not easy. Standing up to dark and murderous regimes never is. With us today is Holocaust survivor and Nobel Prize winner Elie Wiesel.
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Elie, your life and work inspires to give meaning to the words, "never again."
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And I wish I could promise you, Elie, that the lessons of history have been learned. I can only urge the leaders of the world not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
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Not to sacrifice the future for the present; not to ignore aggression in the hopes of gaining an illusory peace.
But I can guarantee you this, the days when the Jewish people remained passive in the face of genocidal enemies, those days are over.
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We are no longer scattered among the nations, powerless to defend ourselves. We restored our sovereignty in our ancient home. And the soldiers who defend our home have boundless courage. For the first time in 100 generations, we, the Jewish people, can defend ourselves.
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This is why -- this is why, as a prime minister of Israel, I can promise you one more thing: Even if Israel has to stand alone, Israel will stand.
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But I know that Israel does not stand alone. I know that America stands with Israel.
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I know that you stand with Israel.
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You stand with Israel, because you know that the story of Israel is not only the story of the Jewish people but of the human spirit that refuses again and again to succumb to history's horrors.
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Facing me right up there in the gallery, overlooking all of us in this (inaudible) chamber is the image of Moses. Moses led our people from slavery to the gates of the Promised Land.
And before the people of Israel entered the land of Israel, Moses gave us a message that has steeled our resolve for thousands of years. I leave you with his message today, (SPEAKING IN HEBREW), "Be strong and resolute, neither fear nor dread them."
My friends, may Israel and America always stand together, strong and resolute. May we neither fear nor dread the challenges ahead. May we face the future with confidence, strength and hope.
May God bless the state of Israel and may God bless the United States of America.
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Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you all.
You're wonderful.
Thank you, America. Thank you.
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