2015年12月18日 星期五

Martin Shkreli -- CEO of Turning Pharmaceuticals,練乙錚,Stephen S. Roach

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Martin Shkreli, the boyish pharmaceutical entrepreneur who caused a public uproar after he ...

Robert Reich

4小時
Martin Shkreli -- the 32-year-old former hedge-fund manager and CEO of Turning Pharmaceuticals, who bought and then jacked up the price of 62-year-old critical drug used for newborns and HIV patients by more than 4,000 percent -- was arrested this morning. Not because of this greedy deal but because he allegedly defrauded investors at his hedge fund.
For such a young man, Shkreli has a long history of screwing other people. He lost all the money he managed at another hedge fund. He also owed Lehman Brothers $2.3 million related to his trading activities there. And just before he became CEO of Turning he was CEO of Retrophin Pharmaceuticals, whose board removed him because of misconduct and even filed suit against him, calling him “the paradigm faithless servant” by “using his control over Retrophin to enrich himself, and to pay off claims of hedge-fund investors (who he had defrauded).”
Shkreli has always used the free market to justify himself. He defended his decision to raise the price of that old drug by saying “our shareholders expect us to make as much as money as possible.” But in reality he's always sought to make as much money as possible only for himself, no matter whom he harmed. Martin Shkreli is exactly where the new logic of greed and self-dealing leads.
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練乙錚談美國升息和中國經濟問題。
//西方的金融界當中,過分樂觀看待大陸經濟發展的,大不乏人。「中國大好友」的number one,可算是前大摩亞洲主管、現耶魯大學管理學院高級講師史蒂芬羅奇(Stephen Roach)。此公對大陸經濟的看法一直偏好,例如,2011年,大陸提出「經濟轉型」、「內需主導」的方針之後不久,他便作出樂觀估計,認為到了 2015年,大陸的私人消費(不連政府消費當中的民眾直接得益部分)的GDP佔比,會從2010年的36%增加到45%;換句話說,他認為大陸的經濟改革,說到做到,立竿見影,不出5年,轉型便可說成功。事實上呢?到了今年,最新的官方數據顯示,大陸私人消費的GDP佔比5年來只有1個多百分點的增加,亦即幾乎原封不動。
好了,消費比率上不去,再看別的。近年,大陸經濟出現製造業生產失速、產能嚴重過剩的狀況,於是西方金融界又提出大陸「服務業成為經濟增長火車頭」 的說法,認為這是經濟形態進一步現代化的開端;製造業失速、產能過剩是必然的,並非壞事,而是反映了大陸經濟「從第三產業為主力過渡到以第四產業為主導」 的發展典型。在這個說法底下,服務業的增長,不僅可以替代失速的製造業,還可以「保7」、「保8」;總之,前景美好。說着、說着,連大陸自己也對此深信不疑了。
問題是,這個說法有兩個明顯漏洞。首先,大陸的製造業產能過剩,幾乎完全是因為溫家寶2009年的「5萬億新增貸款穩經濟保增長」(一說「4萬億」)計劃的直接產物,是錯誤政策的後遺症,是一種病態而不是經濟本身發展到瓜熟蒂落要轉型的自然變化結果。
第二,製造業的技術改良可能性比服務業大,因此以服務業為主導的經濟增長幅度必然比較慢;這個規律,是西方國家的普遍經驗,到今天也沒有出現例外; 所以,大陸的經濟從製造業主導轉變到以服務業為主導,就算是自然產生的,它的GDP增幅也必然下跌,以之「保7」、「保8」,都是不可能的。
可是,無論是西方金融界的唱好者還是大陸經濟界的「中國特殊論」者都完全忽略上述兩點,認為大陸經濟正在健康發展、成功轉型,偶一失速,搞一些政策刺激,消費和投資就上去了,一點問題也沒有。世界上有那麼容易的事嗎?服務業成為增長火車頭,講了幾年就成真了嗎?
大陸為應付這兩三年的GDP失速,推出一連串的投資和消費刺激,效果卻似有若無;這終於讓大陸的一些人明白到是什麼一回事。//


        Image result for stephen roach books
    Stephen S. Roach
    Economist
    Stephen Samuel Roach is an American economist and serves as senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale School of Management. Wikipedia
    BornSeptember 16, 1945 (age 70)
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